Researcher Jorge Piñón from the Energy Institute at the University of Texas elaborated in an interview with Tania Costa on the figures that define the diesel business between the United States and Cuba, based on the agreement that the company Vanguard Energy had to export between 200,000 and 250,000 barrels of fuel to the island.
The analysis by Piñón is based on specific arithmetic: 200,000 barrels of diesel are equivalent to approximately 1,400 isotanks, since each one has a capacity of around 150 barrels.
"It's a large quantity. We have calculated that if it's 200,000 in diesel, that represents about 1,400 isotanks. Each isotank holds around 150 barrels," the expert explained.
Piñón put that figure into perspective with the actual demand of the island. "Cuba's demand for diesel is around 20,000 barrels per day. It's not that large, but it's significant."
This means that a tanker with 200,000 barrels would be enough to supply the Cuban private sector for a month and a half or two months. If that shipment had been consistent over time, it would indicate that the customer is larger. In other words, the State.
"A tanker with 200,000 barrels of diesel will provide enough diesel for at least a month and a half, two months, when only supplying small businesses and not the large companies," Piñón specified.
The largest consumer of diesel in Cuba is the UNE (National Electric Union), followed by the agricultural, transportation, railway, and mining sectors, according to the expert.
Piñón warned that the volume projected by Vanguard was, in itself, a warning sign about who would be the true recipient of the fuel.
"Those 250,000 barrels or 200,000 barrels that Vanguard was going to export to Cuba cannot be consumed by a small company," he asserted.
The researcher established a clear criterion to determine whether the fuel would end up in the hands of the regime: if the sales volume consistently exceeds 200,000 barrels per month, that constitutes an unmistakable signal.
"If the sales volume is significantly higher than that, then it is a warning sign. It indicates that there is a large customer behind it who is consuming a substantial portion of this fuel," Piñón emphasized.
Volume problems are compounded by cost. The price of diesel in the United States exceeds four dollars per gallon, making the transaction more expensive for both the importer and small businesses in Cuba.
"Nowadays, we have diesel here in the United States at over four dollars a gallon. So the product is expensive. It is costly for the importer. It is costly for the small business that is importing it," he noted.
At that price, the cost of hiring independent auditors to report the movement of fuel volumes within Cuba is added.
The agreement with Vanguard was blocked after the sanction imposed by the State Department on CUPET, under Executive Order 14404 signed by Trump on May 1, 2026, which prevents fuel from reaching assets controlled by the Cuban state-owned enterprise.
Piñón left open a future perspective: "Perhaps at some point, under a Cuba with a different economic model and a different political model, the potential demand (for 200,000 barrels) will certainly exist."
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