Jorge Piñón, researcher at the Institute for Energy at Texas, does not see "the light at the end of the tunnel" for Cuba's energy crisis and believes that it is unreasonable to expect improvements in the short term because, in his opinion, Cubans will face "continuity" in 2026. That is, blackouts similar to those of 2024 and 2025. Furthermore, he insists that the 50 solar parks the regime presents as the solution to the problem are a "fairy tale" because, lacking batteries, they will only be able to supply electricity during the day.
The professor from the University of Texas is emphatic when explaining that the Cuban energy crisis is a structural problem, and according to recent calculations made by his students, Cuba will need between three and five years to recover if an investment of between 8 billion and 10 billion dollars is secured.
Moreover, Piñón warned that if Cuba loses the supply of oil from Venezuela and Mexico, the regime will have to purchase this oil on the market at a cost of about $2.2 billion per year. The situation would worsen because the Cuban electrical system has two major issues: one is the infrastructure, and the other is the government's inability to seek funding for investment in the Cuban electrical system.
So far, all that has been done are brief repairs and patches, and we must all recognize that the electricity problem in Cuba is structural and can only be addressed in the long term. It will take between 3 to 5 years, and the cost may range from 8 to 10 billion dollars. We need to remember that Cuba's thermoelectric plants have been in operation for over 40 years. They have received very little maintenance, both operational and capital, and they also burn Cuban crude oil, which is highly harmful due to its sulfur, vanadium, and other metal content that damages the units. This creates a vicious cycle. In other words, we temporarily fix the units, use a fuel that is damaging, and therein lies the root of the entire problem. So, it is a tunnel in which we do not see a light at the end.
"I believe we all know what an almendrón is, and unfortunately, the Cuban electric sector and the Cuban sugar sector are like almendrones that can only be temporarily patched up with band-aids or small fixes, but structurally cannot compete in Monaco. There's no way around it, so unfortunately, I don't see a solution to this problem regarding thermoelectric plants; I don’t see a solution regarding the generators; I don’t see a solution for national crude oil production," he said.
"In wind energy, we have La Herradura, which is a project that has been in place for over ten years and is still not operational. As for biomass, we have it: there is no sugarcane. So how can we expect biomass to contribute to Cuba's national electric future? We have solar energy, welcome as it is, but unfortunately, given the way these projects are being executed and the amount, it will not provide a solution. I have no good news."
"We are all excited now because, look, we are building another solar park in Cabaiguán; another solar park in Matanzas, another one in Guantánamo, how great is that, this is going to solve our problem. No. It's not like that, and they’ve gotten themselves into that situation because of the way they announce it with great fanfare, which has unfortunately raised the expectations of the people. I’ll say it again, I don't oppose solar energy; we all support solar energy, but unfortunately, the way this plan is being executed will not help with the structural problem we face today in Cuba," added Jorge Piñón.
In response to CiberCuba's question about what awaits Cubans in 2026, Jorge Piñón answered that there will be "continuity of the problem we face today."
"I know that Cuba is making an effort, and we applaud it, with solar energy, but once again, the solar energy in the way they are working with 28 or 29, or what they expect to be 50 solar parks, in a shotgun strategy model, meaning they are scattered all over the country only will function during the day when there is sunlight since they do not have batteries. Here, for example, just outside Houston, a 700 MW solar park covering 22,000 acres with 250 MW of batteries has just opened. This means it can operate 24 hours a day. So we applaud the solar energy effort and hope they continue, but unfortunately, in the way it is being done and without large batteries, it will not yield results. Another that we hoped would be a major step for Cuba was cane biomass, and there you see the problem with the Ciro Redondo mill (Ciego de Ávila), where the Chinese spent 180 million dollars on building a 65-megawatt biomass plant, and there it is, almost non-operational, burning marabú. Why? Because there is no sugarcane. So, how can we leverage that great energy strength we have, which is sugarcane? Like Brazil does, which generates 16% of its electricity from cane biomass. The answer to your question is that I do not see any solution for 2026,” he concluded.
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