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The Cuban economist Mauricio De Miranda Parrondo warned this Friday that the package of 176 economic measures presented by the Cuban regime to the National Assembly is not a socialist reform, but the first step towards an "authoritarian patrimonial" capitalism directed by the Communist Party.
The package, presented by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz in the presence of Miguel Díaz-Canel and with the explicit approval of Raúl Castro, includes the controversial measure 17, which transforms state-owned enterprises into commercial companies by shares or participation, allowing individuals, non-state management forms, and other state enterprises to purchase shares.
"I have been saying for a long time —and I don't get tired of repeating it— that the Cuban leadership was betting on a transition from bureaucratic socialism to 'authoritarian patrimonial' capitalism," De Miranda wrote on Facebook.
The economist, a tenured professor at the Pontifical Javeriana University of Cali and co-director of the civic thought laboratory Cuba x Cuba, compared the process to two historical references of state asset appropriation by political elites: the Nicaraguan "Sandinista Piñata" of 1990 and the post-Soviet mafia capitalism in Russia and the Central Asian republics.
"We are being 'prepared' for the Nicaraguan 'Sandinista Piñata' with the stamp of post-Soviet mafia capitalism from Russia and the Central Asian republics," he warned.
His main fear is that, without institutional transparency, the process will serve to enrich those close to power. "It will be the quick path for family members and close friends of those in power to become 'shareholders' without anyone knowing where their 'capital' came from," he wrote, and asked: "What guarantee do we have that 'grandchildren', 'great-grandchildren', or 'nephews' won't appropriate what little is left in the country?"
De Miranda does not rule out that Cuba may need to sell state assets at some point. "As an economist, I am aware that Cuba will need to sell state assets during a process of transition. There is no doubt about it, especially because the country is in ruins and because the confiscation of private property did not lead to ownership 'by the entire people' but rather to ownership 'by no one,'" he acknowledged.
However, he warns that this process requires conditions that do not currently exist on the Island. "Something like this would require a capital market with clear, transparent rules and equal opportunities," he noted, adding that without a transformation toward a democratic rule of law, with separation of powers and an independent judiciary, the result will be what he refers to as "Crony Capitalism."
The economist also questioned the measure 36 of the reform package, which acknowledges "the legitimate growth of the financial and material assets of legal and natural persons" and guarantees labor protection "without allowing the indiscriminate exploitation of man by man."
"Then is non-indiscriminate exploitation allowed in Cuban 'socialism'? I'll leave it at that for now," De Miranda quipped.
The implementation of the package of 176 measures organized into 23 axes would require modifying more than 148 legal provisions and approving 32 new regulations, according to the regime itself. De Miranda had developed his thesis on the transition to patrimonial capitalism in an article published on December 26, 2025, in Cuba x Cuba, a portal that the regime blocked shortly after.
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