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The economist and journalist Miguel Alejandro Hayes argues that the 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly of Cuba are not a genuine reform, but rather a reordering of power within Castrismo disguised as economic openness.
In an analysis published on June 25 in the journal El Estornudo, Hayes argues that the relevant question is not what type of ownership predominates in the new scheme, but rather why a dictatorship would be willing to allow foreign franchises, private enterprises with more than a hundred workers, and the elimination of intermediaries in imports without conceding an ounce of political control.
"These measures are, above all, a redistribution: a new social pact, the continuation of the country's division towards national private property," writes Hayes. "The answer lies not in the economy, but in power."
The economist outlines a timeline of two key moments in this transfer of economic power, which began during the era of Raúl Castro. In the first instance, the military-business conglomerate GAESA relinquished control of retail — the CIMEX, TRD, and Cubalse stores.
In the second, he handed over control of imports, remittances, and foreign trade banking.
The result is that today the private sector manages what was previously handled by the military apparatus, but with total opacity regarding who the real owners are.
"Cuba, all of a sudden, looks like Delaware," writes Hayes, comparing the island to the U.S. state known for its corporate permissiveness and the anonymity of its business structures.
In previous statements reported by this outlet, Hayes had been even more straightforward about the limits of the process: the measures "do not seek development, but rather political survival" of the regime.
"They will never eliminate the entry barriers to economic activity; any legal business on the island will continue to be conditioned by clientelism and political silence," he warned.
The package of 176 measures, presented by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz before the Parliament in an extraordinary session on June 18 and 19, includes the authorization of private banking under the supervision of the Central Bank, private exchange houses, the elimination of the cap of 100 workers for small and medium-sized enterprises (mipymes), the possibility of business co-ownership, and greater openness to foreign direct investment, including Cubans residing abroad.
It also includes the end of the universal subsidy for the ration book, in effect since 1962, to replace it with targeted assistance for retirees and vulnerable individuals.
Marrero himself acknowledged before the Assembly that the application will generate “contradictions” that the government will need to resolve “on the fly”.
Other economists share Hayes' skepticism. Mauricio de Miranda, from the Cuba Transformación group, pointed out that GAESA does not appear "in the slightest" among any of the 176 measures and warned that without democratic reforms, the outcome could be an authoritarian and patrimonial capitalism similar to that which emerged in Russia after the Soviet collapse.
The United States, for its part, described the measures as “superficial smoke signals” that do not entail a real change in the political model, an assessment that aligns with Hayes's interpretation: “The regime seeks to rebuild the social and political pact that sustains Castroism, opening economic opportunities designed to buy complicity in exchange for political loyalty.”
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