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Cuba is nearing its historical record of blackouts this Friday: the Electric Union (UNE) projects a deficit of 2,206 MW during the peak nighttime demand hours, with a barely available 944 MW against an estimated demand of 3,150 MW, indicating a forecasted shortfall of 2,236 MW according to the official information note.
That figure is just two megawatts shy of the absolute record of 2.208 MW recorded on June 25, 2026, the worst data in the recent electrical history of the country.
The immediate trigger is the new departure of the CTE Antonio Guiteras from the system, its 17th disconnection so far in 2026, just four days after it returned on June 29.
By dawn on Friday, the situation had already become critical: at 6:00 AM, there were 1,605 MW affected, with a demand of 2,745 MW and only 944 MW available. By noon, the UNE estimated that the affected amount would rise to 1,700 MW.
Units 6 and 8 of the Mariel Power Plant, unit 6 of the Diez de Octubre Power Plant, the unit from the Guiteras Power Plant, and unit 2 of the Felton Power Plant are out of service.
Unit 3 of the CTE Habana, Unit 5 of the CTE Nuevitas, and Units 5 and 6 of the CTE Renté are under maintenance, resulting in additional thermal limitations of 409 MW.
On Thursday, there was no respite either: the UNE confirmed that the service was interrupted for 24 hours, including the entire night, with a maximum impact of 2,038 MW at 8:50 PM.
The 54 photovoltaic solar parks generated 4,697 MWh on Thursday with a peak capacity of 758 MW, but this generation is irrelevant during the nighttime hours of peak demand when power outages hit hardest.
The root of the problem is structural. The CTE Guiteras, the largest thermoelectric plant in Cuba, has been in operation for over 38 years and has not received major maintenance since 2010. Between January and May 29, 2026, it accumulated 293 hours of downtime due to defects in the economizer of the boiler, a component responsible for half of all its outages.
Specialists estimate that the final repair will require the replacement of around 500 pipes and between 1,000 and 1,200 welding beads in an intervention lasting at least 180 days.
The director of the UNE, Román Pérez Castañeda, acknowledged this need but admitted that "the situation in the country still does not allow it."
The Minister of Energy and Mines, Vicente de la O Levy, promised that maintenance would be completed by the end of 2025, but postponed it in December citing a "current issue" and announced it again in April 2026 without setting a specific date.
In addition to the crisis of thermoelectric plants, there is a shortage of fuel: Cuba requires between 90,000 and 110,000 barrels of oil daily to sustain its electrical system, but it only produces 40,000.
This keeps 106 distributed generation plants, equivalent to 890 MW, inoperative.
The impact on the population is devastating. Matanzas, the province where Guiteras is located, reports outages of up to 87 consecutive hours, while municipalities in Havana such as Cerro experienced more than 24 hours and 35 minutes without electricity just on Wednesday.
If the nighttime forecast comes true, this Friday will be marked as the second worst day in Cuban electrical history, just one step away from the all-time record set on June 25, which left over 65% of the island dark at the same time.
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