The U.S. dollar experienced a surge in price in the Cuban informal market over the last few hours, marking four consecutive days of recovery following the drop it faced in the final days of June.
At dawn on this 4th of July, a day when Americans celebrate the 250th anniversary of the founding of the U.S., the dollar is being sold in Cuba at an average of 645 Cuban pesos (CUP), which represents an increase of 15 CUP.
The rebound comes just days after the currency hit a recent low of 605 CUP on June 30, having plummeted 90 CUP from its historic high of 695 CUP, recorded on June 21.
The roller coaster of the past few weeks has left millions of Cubans on edge, as their purchasing power is directly tied to the exchange rate.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Four consecutive days of increase
The recovery of the dollar began on July 1, when the currency rose to 610 CUP following the drop at the end of June.
In just four days, the dollar has regained 40 CUP since the low on June 30, erasing almost half of the correction that followed the historical peak.
The euro, for its part, is holding steady today at 720 CUP, a price it reached in the previous session. The European currency has also seen a recovery but is still far from its own historical high of 800 CUP.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) decreases today in price and is trading around 490-497 CUP.
Exchange rate today 04/07/2026 - 7:44 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 645 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 720 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 493 CUP.
The pattern of the “currency overshooting”
The analysts from elTOQUE explained the recent turn of events as a recurring phenomenon in the Cuban economy since 2022.
According to their analysis on the exchange rate overshooting in Cuba, «in the face of a shift in expectations, whether it be an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency skyrockets beyond what the real fundamentals of the economy justify.
The most recent trigger was the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly on June 19, which includes, for the first time since 1959, the authorization of private banking and a digital currency market.
The announcement generated a wave of expectations that pushed foreign currencies to historic highs, followed by a subsequent correction.
However, elTOQUE warns that the rebound does not signify a real improvement: “when the market fully absorbs the true magnitude of that change, it corrects. But the correction is never complete. The new baseline is higher than the previous one.”
The medium also points out the so-called "herd effect" as a driver of these fluctuations: "people buy foreign currency not because they have rationally assessed the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the rise."
Skepticism of independent economists
Independent economists do not share the optimism that some sectors express regarding the regime's measures.
The economist Pedro Monreal González described the package of 176 measures as a "monster" or "deformed hybrid" and was blunt: "the numbers don't add up, and the government wants to make it seem that it's not a problem of mathematics, but of will."
Pavel Vidal, specialist at the Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi), agrees that "Cuban exchange markets sometimes move exuberantly based on certain waves of optimism or pessimism", even when the structural fundamentals have not changed.
The Cuban peso: A free fall of six years
The background that explains these upheavals is devastating. In 2020, the dollar was priced at 42 CUP on the informal market.
In January 2026, it had already reached 435 CUP. On June 21 of this year, it hit 695 CUP.
In just six years, the Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value.
ElTOQUE summarizes it clearly: "that direction depends on the real shortage of foreign exchange, on triple-digit inflation, on the fiscal deficit, and on the structural distrust in the Cuban peso. As long as these conditions do not change, the rate will inevitably rise again."
Pavel Vidal, for his part, warned that “it will be difficult to regain trust, certainty, and hope.”
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates of this July 4:
1 USD = 645 CUP.
5 USD = 3,225 CUP.
10 USD = 6,450 CUP.
20 USD = 12,900 CUP.
50 USD = 32,250 CUP.
100 USD = 64,500 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 720 CUP.
5 EUR = 3,600 CUP.
10 EUR = 7,200 CUP.
20 EUR = 14,400 CUP.
50 EUR = 36,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 72,000 CUP.
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