The U.S. dollar experienced a price surge in recent hours in the informal Cuban market, consolidating four consecutive days of recovery following the decline it faced in the final days of June.
At dawn on this July 4th, a day when Americans celebrate the 250th anniversary of the founding of the U.S., the dollar is being sold in Cuba for an average of 645 Cuban pesos (CUP), which represents a rise of 15 CUP.
The rebound comes just days after the currency hit a recent low of 605 CUP on June 30, having plummeted 90 CUP from its all-time high of 695 CUP recorded on June 21.
The rollercoaster of change in recent weeks keeps millions of Cubans on edge, as their purchasing power is directly tied to the exchange rate.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Four consecutive days of increase
The recovery of the dollar began on July 1, when the currency rose to 610 CUP after the drop at the end of June.
In just four days, the dollar has regained 40 CUP since the low on June 30, erasing almost half of the correction that followed the historic peak.
The euro, for its part, remains today at 720 CUP, a price it reached on the previous day. The European currency has also experienced a recovery, but it is still far from its own historical high of 800 CUP.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) is down today and is trading around 490-497 CUP.
Exchange rate today 04/07/2026 - 7:44 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 645 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 720 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 493 CUP.
The pattern of the «overshooting» exchange rate
Analysts from elTOQUE explained the recent shift as a recurring phenomenon in the Cuban economy since 2022.
According to their analysis on the currency overshooting in Cuba, «in the face of a change in expectations, whether it be an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency skyrockets beyond what the real fundamentals of the economy justify.»
The most recent trigger was the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly on June 19, which for the first time since 1959 includes the authorization of private banking and a digital exchange market.
The announcement created a wave of expectations that pushed currencies to historic highs, followed by a subsequent correction.
However, elTOQUE warns that the rebound does not imply a real improvement: “when the market finishes assimilating the true magnitude of that change, it corrects. But the correction is never complete. The new floor is higher than the previous one.”
The medium also points out the so-called "herd effect" as a driving force behind these fluctuations: "people buy foreign currency not because they have rationally assessed the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the increase."
Skepticism of independent economists
Independent economists do not share the optimism that some sectors project regarding the regime's measures.
The economist Pedro Monreal González described the package of 176 measures as a "monster" or "deformed hybrid" and was emphatic: "the numbers do not add up, and the government wants to make it seem that it is not a mathematical problem but one of will."
Pavel Vidal, an expert from the Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi), agrees that “Cuban foreign exchange markets sometimes move exuberantly based on certain waves of optimism or pessimism”, even though the structural fundamentals have not changed.
The Cuban peso: A six-year free fall
The background that explains these turbulences is devastating. In 2020, the dollar was valued at 42 CUP in the informal market.
In January 2026, it had already reached 435 CUP. On June 21 of this year, it hit 695 CUP.
In just six years, the Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value.
ElTOQUE summarizes it clearly: "that direction depends on the actual shortage of foreign exchange, triple-digit inflation, the fiscal deficit, and structural distrust in the Cuban peso. As long as these conditions remain unchanged, the rate will inevitably rise again."
Pavel Vidal, for his part, warned that “it will be difficult to regain trust, certainty, and hope.”
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates as of July 4th:
1 USD = 645 CUP.
5 USD = 3,225 CUP.
10 USD = 6,450 CUP.
20 USD = 12,900 CUP.
50 USD = 32,250 CUP.
100 USD = 64,500 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 720 CUP.
5 EUR = 3,600 CUP.
10 EUR = 7,200 CUP.
20 EUR = 14,400 CUP.
50 EUR = 36,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 72,000 CUP.
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