Five of the most recognized independent Cuban economists published on Monday Cuba Transformación, a 120-page proposal that suggests dismantling the current economic model of the island and replacing it with a social market economy supported by a democratic rule of law.
The document, presented as a roadmap to pull Cuba out of the worst economic crisis in its recent history, argues that the main obstacle to recovery is not the U.S. embargo, but the exhaustion of the economic system implemented by the regime.
The initiative, announced on June 22 and now published in its complete version, was developed by Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo, Pedro Monreal González, Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva, Ricardo Torres Pérez, and Pavel Vidal Alejandro, with the support of the Cuba Study Group and the Observatory on the Cuban Economy.
The authors describe a declining economy. According to the report, by 2025, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was still below the levels recorded in 2014 and was more than 15% lower than that of 2018. Investment accounted for only 7% of GDP, far below the Latin American average of around 19%, while external debt reached approximately 29.3 billion dollars, equivalent to over 130% of GDP.
The text argues that the Cuban economic model exhausted its capacity to generate growth years ago and criticizes successive governments for replacing internal reforms with external alliances.
"The foreign policy served as a substitute for economic policy," states the document, referencing first the dependence on the Soviet Union and later on Venezuela.
The proposal explicitly rejects following the path of China or Vietnam. Instead, it suggests a transition to a social market economy where economic reforms are accompanied by political and institutional changes that ensure the rule of law.
For the authors, without those transformations, the reforms would continue to be vulnerable to setbacks.
The plan is divided into three stages. The first, expected to last around three years, focuses on stabilizing the economy through urgent actions addressing the energy crisis, food production, inflation, the foreign exchange market, and the expansion of the private sector. The subsequent phases include productive recovery, institutional reform, and the consolidation of a new development model.
GAESA, CUPET, and the return to financial organizations
Among the most significant proposals is the reorganization of the military conglomerate GAESA. The document suggests transferring its companies to civilian institutions, incorporating its revenues into the state budget, and handing over the international reserves managed by the group to the Central Bank.
It also proposes to eliminate the CUPET monopoly in the energy sector, create a market for agricultural land with usufruct contracts of up to 50 years and a limit of 402 hectares per producer, as well as requesting Cuba's re-entry into the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
Another of the most sensitive issues is that of properties confiscated after 1959. Economists propose creating a National Claims Commission to compensate former owners through bonds or other mechanisms, without evicting those who subsequently acquired these properties in accordance with current legislation.
Warning about corruption
Economist Pedro Monreal highlighted this Monday on the social media platform X that the proposal includes six specific measures to prevent corruption, in contrast to the 176 actions recently approved by the regime's National Assembly, which —as he pointed out— barely address this issue with general references to "control and inspection."
Monreal warned that an accelerated privatization of state assets, without strong institutions or legal guarantees, could enable individuals close to those in power to appropriate those resources.
The authors clarify that Cuba Transformación does not aim to be a government program nor is it directed at Miguel Díaz-Canel's administration. They present it as a foundation for discussing how to rebuild the Cuban economy after decades of stagnation.
"This proposal does not aim to be an infallible plan or offer magical solutions. Instead, it presents a coherent, realistic, and flexible analytical framework," concludes the document.
At the same time, it recognizes the main challenges for its implementation: the lack of necessary political conditions, the need to secure international funding from the outset of the process, and the possibility that the sectors currently in power may block any fundamental transformation.
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