The tropical depression Two, formed on Sunday over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, is about to become tropical storm Bertha by this Monday afternoon, according to forecasts from hurricane specialist Michael Lowry of Local10.
The system was located this morning about 120 miles south of Panama City, moving northwest at just three miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour (mph).
Only a slight increase is needed for the system to reach tropical storm status. "Just a small rise in the estimated surface winds (from 35 mph to 40 mph) is required to reach tropical storm Bertha, which is expected to occur this afternoon," Lowry explained.
A hurricane-hunting plane from the Air Force Reserve detected slow but steady drops in pressure during the morning of Monday, indicating that the surface circulation is gradually organizing.
Bertha would be the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, following Arthur, which formed in June and impacted Texas and Louisiana without reaching hurricane status.
Trajectory and areas on alert
The forecast indicates a very slow movement to the west along the northern Gulf coast this week, with a possible landfall near southeast Louisiana on Wednesday.
Tropical storm watches are active from the Florida Panhandle to the coast of Alabama, in anticipation of winds exceeding 38 mph.
A storm surge watch was also issued from the Alabama-Florida border to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
The south of Florida will not experience direct impacts from the system, although the lower likelihood of rain will keep temperatures above normal, with heat indexes nearing warning levels each afternoon, according to meteorologist Jennifer Collins.
No risk of hurricane, but with dangerous rainfall
The intensity models almost entirely rule out the possibility of Bertha becoming a hurricane: only about 3% of the scenarios from Google DeepMind's thousand-member ensemble system consider that possibility.
The main dangers will be locally intense rains, with general accumulations of two to four inches and local maxima of up to eight inches, as well as dangerous rip currents along the northern Gulf coast.
The greatest risk of flash floods will occur between Tuesday night and Thursday, from southern Louisiana to southeastern Texas.
Water temperatures in the northern Gulf are near record levels for this time of year, which promotes the organization of the system. However, Lowry anticipated that this factor would not be enough for significant strengthening
"For Wednesday, especially, a northern shear line and interaction with land should begin to dismantle what remains of the storm as it approaches Louisiana," he clarified.
The Colorado State University lowered its forecast in July to just nine named storms for the entire 2026 season, mainly due to the strengthening of El Niño, which increases wind shear and inhibits cyclone formation in the Atlantic.
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