Miguel Cossio, Director of Operations at the American Museum of the Cuban Diaspora in Miami, discussed on the program "Infinite Wars" from the account @thehavanafiles the possible paths to end the Cuban regime.
The analysis takes on special significance amid the negotiations between Washington and Havana. Cossio outlines four scenarios and a fifth that would be a combination of all of them.
1. Negotiation with the Trump administration. This is the first and most immediate possibility.
"The change comes as a result of negotiations between the United States and Cuba," he noted. Trump confirmed in February 2026 discussions with "the highest levels" of the Cuban government and said, "I believe we will make a deal." In May, he was more direct: "I can fix Cuba."
2. Internal fracture of the regime. Cossio draws a parallel with Romania and asserts that it is not impossible for something similar to happen in Cuba.
"The intelligence apparatus of the Romanians themselves, Romania's security, eliminated Nicolae Ceaușescu." A rupture within the leadership could occur abruptly, without any visible prior signs from the outside.
3. Popular uprising. The reference point is July 11, 2021, when thousands of Cubans took to the streets in the largest protests since 1959.
However, Cossio warns that "the Castro regime has been cautious" and today has a new Penal Code and a new communications law to criminalize any form of dissent or activism on social media.
4. U.S. Military Intervention This aspect is not addressed in the excerpt of the statements that is published, but it has been widely discussed by other analysts recently.
5. Combination of the previous scenarios, which could include the death of Raúl Castro as a trigger for a succession crisis.
These five points are presented by the Museum of the Cuban Diaspora on Instagram, suggesting that the interview features "a conversation about history, strategy, and the challenges of Cuba's future."
Miguel Cossio is a journalist and media executive. Since May 2025, he has been leading the operations of the museum and has become a key institutional voice in discussions about the Cuban transition.
The museum, the epicenter of the debate on the transition
Cossio's analysis comes days after the museum hosted, on July 22, 2026, the forum "Initiative for a Democratic and Economic Alternative for Cuba", focused on the costs of rebuilding the island after a potential transition.
The figures presented at that forum illustrate the magnitude of the challenge. The first 180 days of stabilization would cost between 180 and 270 million dollars, according to economist Rafael Romeu.
Recovering the electrical system would require between 5,000 and 8,000 million dollars within a timeframe of three to five years, according to expert Jorge Piñón. The total reconstruction of the country could reach between 275,000 and 375,000 million dollars in 10 to 15 years.
The negotiation scenario is the most debated in these forums, but it faces a central obstacle: Washington has conditioned progress on the departure of Díaz-Canel. However, the regime rejects any changes imposed from outside to its political system.
The opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer stated in May 2026 that the end of the Cuban regime is near and believes that the United States will play a key role in that outcome.
This assessment aligns with Miguel Cossio's analysis of the role that the Trump administration would play in any possible scenarios for change in Cuba.
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