Just hours after the National Electric System (SEN) was reconnected in the western part of the country, the Electric Union (UNE) published its forecast for the peak nighttime period on Sunday: an impact of 2,195 MW, with a availability of only 1,035 MW against a projected maximum demand of 3,200 MW.
The deficit amounts to approximately 68% of the total demand, which anticipates massive blackouts across much of Cuban territory during peak consumption hours this Sunday.
The collapse that preceded this forecast began on Saturday at 18:07, when there was, according to UNE itself, "a simultaneous shutdown of the 220 kV lines from Matanzas to Cienfuegos and from Matanzas to Santa Clara," which divided the SEN and left five provinces without electricity: Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Havana, and Matanzas.
The restoration was gradual and lasted for nearly seven hours. The UNE reported in the early morning that "as of this moment, restoration efforts continue according to the established procedure. Hospitals and vital centers are in service. Generating units from the western region are being prepared for gradual incorporation into the SEN." At 1:10 a.m. this Sunday, the agency announced: "The Electrical System has been restored in the western part of the country."
However, the official announcement did not reflect the reality that many Cubans were experiencing. In the comments on the UNE page, residents from Havana, Matanzas, Artemisa, and Cienfuegos reported still being without electricity. "I don’t have power. I think they removed me from the western part of the country; I’m from planet Mars," wrote a user. Another pointed out, "They only turned on the privileged circuits." A third was more direct: "This is complete disinformation regarding the people."
This episode is the fifth collapse of the National Electric System in 2026, following the total disconnections on March 16, July 6, and on July 10 and 14. The historical record for simultaneous outages—without a collapse of the National Electric System—was recorded on July 29 with 2,380 MW.
The thermal generation chart reflects the structural deterioration of the system. Among the units out of service this Sunday are units 6 and 8 of the Máximo Gómez Thermoelectric Plant (Mariel), unit 1 of the Ernesto Guevara De La Serna Thermoelectric Plant, unit 1 of the Antonio Guiteras Thermoelectric Plant in Matanzas —the largest in the country, with at least 17 unplanned outages in 2026— and unit 2 of the Lidio Ramón Pérez Thermoelectric Plant in Felton. Under maintenance are unit 3 of the Ernesto Guevara De La Serna Power Plant, units 5 and 6 of the Antonio Maceo Power Plant in Renté, and unit 5 of the Diez de Octubre Power Plant in Nuevitas.
To try to reduce the deficit during the peak period, UNE plans to bring online unit 8 of the Mariel CTE with 60 MW and unit 1 of the Santa Cruz CTE with 45 MW, a contribution that is marginal compared to the more than 2,000 MW gap that still needs to be addressed.
Regarding alternative sources, the 54 photovoltaic solar parks generated 4,867 MWh on Saturday, with a peak capacity of 756 MW. However, solar energy does not operate at night, which is precisely when demand peaks and the most severe deficits occur. Additionally, 106 distributed generation plants remain out of service due to a lack of fuel, along with Patana de Regla, Patana de Melones, Mariel Fuel Plant, and Moa Fuel Plant.
The fuel shortage, exacerbated by the reduction of supplies from Venezuela, Mexico, and Russia, is the most immediate limiting factor for thermoelectric generation. The Minister of Energy and Mines, Vicente de la O Levy, acknowledged on July 30 that there are communities experiencing up to 105 days without electricity, and he admitted that the energy crisis "does not have a short-term solution" and that "the road ahead is long."
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