Cuban specialists and international organizations have raised alarms about the strengthening of the El Niño phenomenon and its possible consequences for Cuba, in a scenario that combines drought, extreme heat, and a potentially severe winter.
The analysis was gathered by the Cuban outlet Cubasí, which published warnings from meteorologists on the island and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The WMO estimates that there is an approximately 80% chance that El Niño will strengthen between June and August 2026, and over a 90% probability that it will remain active until November.
International models indicate an event that is at least moderate in intensity, with the possibility of reaching strong levels.
The European Center for Forecasts projects ocean temperature anomalies of up to 3.3°C in the equatorial Pacific, which would surpass the historical record of 2.6°C from the 2015-2016 episode.
The NOAA raised in August the probability to 69% that this will be the strongest event recorded, with a 63% chance of reaching the "very intense" category between November 2026 and January 2027.
Three areas of risk for Cuba
For the island, the phenomenon simultaneously opens three fronts of vulnerability: drought and extreme heat during the summer, lower cyclonic activity in the Atlantic, and a 2026-2027 winter that specialists describe as potentially dangerous.
The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) has explained that under El Niño conditions, cyclonic activity in the Atlantic tends to decrease due to an increase in vertical wind shear.
However, the specialists themselves warn that this influence does not eliminate the risk: INSMET estimated a 40% probability that at least one hurricane will hit Cuba and a 75% probability that a tropical storm will occur during the 2026 season.
The researcher Luis Lecha Estela from INSMET explained to the state-run newspaper Granma that the combination of atmospheric and oceanic factors could lead to conditions of meteorological drought and water stress in the country, with summers being warmer than usual.
The meteorologist Yosmelvi Páez Cornell was more explicit about the paradox posed by the phenomenon: "While we will have one of the calmest hurricane seasons in decades due to the effects of El Niño, the winter season will be quite the opposite."
Páez Cornell warned that the Cuban winter will bring intense rains and tornadoes, with increased frequency and intensity of cold fronts and severe storms, especially in the western and central parts of the country.
The closest precedent is the winter of 2009-2010, when Cuba recorded seven cold fronts in February of that year, more than double the historical average of 3.34 for that month.
An island that faces the phenomenon in a critical situation
The alerts arrive at a time of extreme fragility.
By March 2026, drought was affecting 62% of the national territory, and water reserves were at 38% of their capacity, the lowest level since 2015.
In May, nearly 2.7 million Cubans lacked regular access to drinking water, while around 10 million received it intermittently.
This situation is compounded by the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall in the eastern part of the island on October 29, 2025, as a Category 3 storm, damaging over 116,000 homes and affecting more than 3.5 million people in Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, Granma, Las Tunas, and Guantánamo.
The impact of El Niño, specialists warn, would not be limited to meteorological effects: prolonged periods of heat, reduced water availability, and changes in rainfall can adversely affect agriculture, energy generation, and public health on an island that has already endured years of structural deterioration.
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