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The seasonal models from major global meteorological agencies warn that the El Niño episode that is developing in 2026 could become the strongest ever recorded, with unprecedented climatic consequences in modern history.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed this month that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly, with a "clear shift" indicating the onset of the phenomenon between May and July 2026.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of climate prediction at the WMO, indicated that there is a high degree of certainty regarding the onset of El Niño, followed by a greater intensification in the subsequent months.
"I believe we will witness weather events that we have never seen before in modern history," warned Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist at WFLA-TV in Tampa.
The European Center for Forecasts projects ocean temperature anomalies of up to 3.3°C in the equatorial Pacific, which would surpass the historical record of 2.6°C recorded during the 2015-2016 event, which has been considered the most intense to date.
The strongest events are referred to as "super-Niños."
Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the California Institute for Water Resources, noted that the volume and intensity of the warm subsurface water anomalies are "roughly as large as those observed in the historical record," although he clarified that it is not guaranteed to be a super-El Niño.
"There is potential for something truly remarkable to happen," Swain added.
If the Pacific releases a lot of heat, it enhances the climate system and causes havoc, Berardelli explained: there will be more intense heat waves, aggravated droughts in some areas, and increased humidity in the air, leading to more severe floods.
In the United States, significant heat waves are expected this summer along with more frequent thunderstorms in the southwestern region of the country.
For the Caribbean and Cuba, the phenomenon would bring drier-than-normal conditions during the northern summer, with fewer tropical systems in the Atlantic due to increased wind shear.
The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) forecasted last Wednesday a less active hurricane season, with 11 tropical cyclones, five hurricanes, and two of great intensity, with a 40% chance of impact on the Island.
The Colorado State University also predicted in April a below-average hurricane season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
In the Amazon, where nearly 40% of the forest area is already degraded by fires, logging, and drought, the risk of new droughts and massive fires could be exacerbated by a strong El Niño.
The summer of 2026 in Cuba is expected to be warmer than usual with intense rainfall, in line with global projections regarding the impact of the phenomenon in the region.
The temperatures in Cuba are already expected to be above normal in May, according to INSMET, partly due to the possible early influence of El Niño.
Michael Mann, a climatologist at the University of Pennsylvania, warned that although El Niño raises global temperatures for one or two years, what should be concerning is the long-term trend of constant warming, "which will continue as long as people keep burning fossil fuels."
Swain was more direct about the immediate horizon: "At this moment, all indicators point to the fact that next year is going to be quite wild from a global climate perspective."
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