The Cuban historian and academic Ivette García González published an article this Friday on the CubaxCuba portal, in which she concludes that the reformist cycle in Cuba is definitively exhausted and that the country needs a radical transformation of the single-party system, rather than new economic patches.
In the text titled "The Old Cuban Dilemma: Reform vs Revolution", the author —a doctor in Historical Sciences and former tenured professor at the University of Havana— argues that the regime has recycled the same formula for decades: "crisis-reform-repression of the reforms," with which it maintains the political power of the triad Party/Government/State, that "counts on inhabitants, not on citizens."
"If the crisis deepens each time despite so many cycles of reforms, it is evident that the time for reform has run out," writes García González. "The existing economic, political, and social model has failed, and worst of all, the people, who should be sovereign, are prevented from changing it."
The academic draws a historical parallel between the failed reform cycles of the 19th century—those prior to 1868 and between 1878 and 1895—and those of the 20th century—at the beginning of the thirties and the end of the fifties—to argue that when reforms do not lead to real solutions, rupture ultimately prevails.
To explain the longevity of the Cuban regime, García González refers to the book Revolution and Dictatorship by the political scientist Steven Levitsky, which demonstrates that authoritarian regimes born from a revolution endure longer than other types of dictatorships: starting from scratch, they design their structures based on loyalty to the emerging power group. Cuba, he notes, is not an exception to this rule, but rather an aggravating factor.
The author places Cuba within the so-called Latin American "Troika" —alongside Nicaragua and Venezuela— which she describes as a "strange family of underdeveloped dictatorships" with common traits: the destruction of electoral democracy, assaults on journalism, unchecked corruption, economic self-blockade, and a pattern of behavior for enduring based on repression, imprisonment, and exile.
The article harshly evaluates the package of 176 economic measures announced by the government in June 2026. García González describes them as "an assault on citizenship and a fraudulent change. Merely economic, as always, when they feel their power is threatened by the extreme crisis. To breathe and buy time."
The academic's diagnosis aligns with a reality of sustained collapse: the Center for Cuban Economy Studies estimated that the economy fell by about 5% in 2025, accumulating a contraction of more than 15% since 2020, while the Economic Intelligence Unit projects a further decline of 7.2% for this year.
In parallel, Prisoners Defenders recorded 1,327 political prisoners by the end of July 2026, a new historical record, and the Cuban Observatory of Conflicts documented 1,415 protests and critical expressions just in that month.
In light of this situation, García González proposes three immediate and interconnected measures for a genuine transition: full freedom for the private sector and foreign trade with real legal guarantees and separation of powers; recognition of civil society independent of the State; and effective exercise of basic freedoms—speech, assembly, association, and press—along with the release of all political prisoners.
This article is part of a series of analyses that the author has published throughout 2026. In May, sheargued that dictatorships are not invincible and proposed a National Civic Movement based on nonviolent struggle; in July, shestated that there is a "profound contradiction between the Cuban Government and the Revolution it claims to represent". The new text takes that line of argumentation to its most radical conclusion.
"What Cuba needs today is not reforms to correct abuses," concludes García González, "but rather to ensure that, as quickly as possible, it leads not merely to a transfer of power, but to the power of the sovereign to build a new vision for the country."
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