On the 73rd anniversary of the assault on the Moncada Barracks, the Cuban historian and academic Ivette García González published an analysis on Facebook this Sunday in which she debunks the official equation between Revolution and Government, calling it one of the greatest lies of the regime in power in Cuba for over six decades.
García González, a doctor in Historical Sciences and former tenured professor at the University of Havana, the ISRI, and the Instituto de Historia de Cuba, asserts that "there is a deep contradiction between the Cuban Government and the Revolution it claims to represent," and that this contradiction "is not new; it has always existed."
The academic recalls that the Revolution of 1959 was born proclaiming sovereignty, democracy, human rights, a national economy, free press, and social justice, and that its leaders fought against hatred and division among Cubans.
However, in his view, the government resulting from that process only partially fulfilled two of those promises: state sovereignty and social justice, and both in a distorted manner.
Regarding sovereignty, it is noted that it was exercised "exclusively in relation to the United States." Concerning social justice, it warns that "it relied on international subsidies—therefore, unsustainable—as well as being conditioned on the loyalty of the people" and was permeated by immense indoctrination.
Regarding the rest of the foundational promises, the assessment drawn is devastating: "The government has always divided Cubans—good and bad, worthy and unworthy, revolutionaries and counter-revolutionaries—constructed a false unity, kidnapped popular sovereignty, reinvented dependency, and tailored democracy to its liking."
Moreover, the regime "invests more in real estate and tourism sectors than in agriculture, health, social security, education, and innovation," while social policies have been in decline for decades.
The result of that model, according to García González, is that "the vast majority do not escape from precariousness; it is precariousness that has been socialized." He goes further: "We are a heroic people, or we feel that way, but in reality, we are hurt and fractured to the core, which is individuality and family."
The migration figure cited by the academic —almost 20% of the emigrated nation— is supported by official data: according to the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), 245,264 Cubans emigrated in 2025 alone, leaving the total population at 9,434,593 inhabitants. García González describes this exodus, combined with demographic aging, an "exorbitant penal population," and systematic repression, as "the collapse of the vital forces of the nation."
The repression mentioned also has specific figures: Prisoners Defenders recorded a historic high of 1,306 political prisoners in Cuba in June 2026, including minors. Meanwhile, the Cuban Observatory of Human Rights reported over 3,000 repressive actions during 2025.
In economic terms, the Center for the Study of the Cuban Economy estimated that the Cuban economy fell by around 5% in 2025, accumulating a contraction of more than 15% since 2020, while the Economic Intelligence Unit projects a further decline of 7.2% for 2026.
In light of that reality, García González poses two questions that he considers unavoidable: for whom has the project been intended? and where does the Revolution manifest itself in what is done in Cuba?
The academic also questions the official commitment to "continuity": "Reproducing the same formulas in different contexts and with different leadership is one of the worst political mistakes, yet they insist on continuity." Her words contrast with those of Prime Minister Manuel Marrero, who in June 2026 defended before Parliament the principle of "doing what is necessary to preserve what is essential" about socialism, while Vice Prime Minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga admitted that "traditional methods are not yielding results."
García González is not unfamiliar with the intellectual debate regarding the exhaustion of the Cuban model. In May 2026, she published analyses on the vulnerability of dictatorships and a proposal for a National Civic Movement based on nonviolent struggle to promote a democratic transition.
The analysis concludes with a warning that paraphrases Antonio Machado: "Cubans, let us engage in politics, for if we do not, it will be done by others and possibly against us."
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