The Cuban-American political scientist, Julio M. Shiling, published an essay this weekend in Patria de Martí in which he concludes that the sanctions against the Cuban regime are insufficient to bring about its downfall.
In that regard, the expert suggested that, following the midterm elections in the United States, Washington must prepare a concrete military action if it seeks real change in the Isla.
Shiling acknowledges that the sanctions campaign of the Trump administration is "morally sustainable, ethically commendable, and tactically necessary," but warns that the regime has been perfecting mechanisms to evade that pressure for over three decades.
According to their analysis, GAESA and other commercial entities of the regime launder income through banks and intermediaries in Panama and other jurisdictions, while Cuban emigrants aligned with the dictatorship sustain seemingly legitimate businesses from abroad that feed this ecosystem.
"The external ecosystem of front companies, offshore finances, and ideological allies provides the dictatorship with a resilience that mere economic pressure cannot overcome," Shiling wrote.
The political scientist also pointed out that the regime's indifference to the suffering of the population diminishes the coercive power of sanctions: "The dictatorship has never regarded the well-being of the Cuban people as a limitation for its survival. The economic hardships are always borne by the people, never by those who make decisions in Havana".
The essay is set against the backdrop of the sanctions package announced on August 20, entitled "Law on the Imposition of Sanctions on Cuban Regime Actors Associated with Marxist Subversive Networks and Corrupt Economic Transactions," which included three officials and nine state entities, among them the Ministry of Construction and several companies from the mining and metallurgical sector.
Shiling also referenced the State Department report from July 20th, titled “Cuba: the Capital of 21st Century Communism,” which documents decades of subversion, espionage, and support for radical movements both within and outside of U.S. territory.
For the political scientist, the persistence of castrism is not just a foreign policy issue: "The persistence of a Marxist regime in Cuba is not merely a foreign policy problem. It is also an internal issue for the United States."
His conclusion was direct and forceful: «Only a concrete military action will achieve the necessary systemic change». He warned that any solution that does not dismantle the structures of the regime would be superficial: «A palace revolution that merely rearranges personnel while leaving the communist structures intact would be merely cosmetic».
This is not the first time that Shiling has defended this position. In March 2026, he already stated that “it is time” for a military intervention, and in the following months, he reiterated that without military pressure or threat, the regime would not relinquish power.
Other voices from exile share this perspective. Raúl Mas Canosa stated this weekend that he believes there will be a change in Cuba before the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027, without ruling out military intervention, and that there are U.S. forces in the area ready to act if given the order.
Washington, however, ruled out immediate military action in August, opting for financial suffocation, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.
Shiling concludes that this moderation could be related to the electoral calendar, but that after the midterm elections "the United States should go beyond calibrated financial measures and prepare the concrete tools necessary to put an end to Cuban communism."
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