The Cuban political scientist Julio Shiling, director of the think tank Patria de Martí, asserted this Monday in a live interview with CiberCuba that it is time for a U.S. military intervention in Cuba, arguing that the Castro regime will not relinquish power without some form of military action or the threat of such action.
The interview, conducted by Tania Costa, took place on the same day that Cuba experienced its sixth general blackout in 18 months, a total disconnection of the National Electric System that lasted approximately 29.5 hours.
"The communist Cuba has never been in a worse situation. That’s why now is the time," said Shiling, who, when directly asked if he believes we are close to a military intervention, responded: "I hope, I hope, I hope, Tania, because frankly, that’s what has been lacking so far in the Cuban context."
Shiling was emphatic in stating that without military pressure, the regime will not relinquish power: "Without any military action or the threat of military action, no. Do I currently believe that they will hand over power in the absence of such action? Absolutely not," he said.
The political scientist outright rejected the proposal by Vice Prime Minister Óscar Pérez-Oliva, announced on Tuesday, to allow emigrants to invest in private companies on the island. He described it as a maneuver to buy time until the midterm elections in November 2026 in the United States.
"This proposal is a way to buy time. Don’t insult our intelligence with such nonsense. That is what the United States should say to the Cuban regime."
To support his argument, Shiling distinguished between authoritarian and totalitarian regimes. As he explained, totalitarian dictatorships —like the Cuban one— do not transition to democracy through economic development; instead, they become more entrenched. He cited China as an example: Deng Xiaoping's opening since 1978 did not lead to democracy but culminated in the Tiananmen massacre in 1989. "Totalitarian dictatorships do not respond to economic improvement to transition to democracy. On the contrary, the dictatorial power becomes stronger," he emphasized.
Shiling proposed a concrete roadmap for Washington: to issue federal charges against high-ranking officials of the regime —including the Castro family— to file lawsuits against GAESA and its assets in Panama, and to use drones to destroy military and intelligence targets.
It was also noted that the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026 demonstrated that this type of operation is feasible: "We are not talking about invasion. How many people said that there was no invasion in Venezuela? There was no invasion. In other words, it was a completely successful operation under much more difficult circumstances than those in Cuba."
The analyst also warned about the regional consequences of inaction: "If communist Cuba manages to survive this, the United States will have wasted their time miserably. And in Venezuela, we will see chavismo return with another president."
Shiling's position contrasts with that of former congressman Joe García, who in another recent interview stated that he cannot "impose on Americans that their children go die in Cuba." It also differs from the statement made by Trump himself, who last Thursday explicitly ruled out direct military intervention, although he predicted that "Cuba is going to fall quite soon."
Filed under: