The economist Pedro Monreal warned on Tuesday that the package of 176 economic measures from the Cuban regime lacks adequate fiscal support to even address the vulnerable population that the government itself acknowledges.
Official figures identify 1.365 million people in a situation of vulnerability, but in 2025 the budget only covered 303,000.
In his post on X, the economist highlighted the vast gap between resources allocated for social assistance and the officially recognized needs, and questioned whether the 176 measures could spur economic recovery while the deterioration of living conditions for millions of Cubans remains unresolved.
Monreal also drew a direct line between the new economic package and the experience of the Ordering Task: "Those who defended the Ordering Task in 2020 as an essential condition to reactivate the national economy now claim that they can rescue it through a package of 176 measures."
The contrast between promise and reality is, according to the economist, evidence of the "loss of ambition in national economic policy." The Order promised in 2021 that "those of us who work with the State will be in a better position," but it ended up being accompanied by high inflation and a significant loss of purchasing power.
A difficult fiscal gap to cover
The core of Monreal's argument is the vast gap between the resources allocated for social assistance and the needs acknowledged by the official figures themselves.
The latest official data identifies 1.365 million people and 1.004 million households in vulnerable situations, while in 2025 the budget only covered 303,000 people and 179,000 households, with an expenditure of 5.396 million pesos, equivalent to 0.43% of GDP.
Extending that coverage to the entire officially recognized vulnerable population would require multiplying current spending by approximately 4.5. Based on the data presented by Monreal, the expenditure would approach 24.3 billion pesos and would increase the budgetary effort to around 2% of GDP, a level that the economist considers difficult to sustain.
The gap would be even greater if we refer to the UN estimate, which identifies 4.2 million people with humanitarian needs in Cuba, representing 44.5% of the population. Covering a population of that size would require, according to the analysis cited by Monreal, an expenditure close to 6% of GDP.
The official data on vulnerability, the economist concludes, is therefore "optimistic" in comparison to that estimate.
The 176 measures and the funding of social assistance
The package of 176 measures, announced by Miguel Díaz-Canel on June 11 and ratified by the National Assembly days later, includes measure 64, which proposes that state actors, as well as domestic and foreign private entities, contribute resources to a "social responsibility at the community level."
Monreal points out, however, that there is no quantitative estimate of how much that mechanism could contribute, nor is there an accurate calculation of the potential savings from the elimination of universal subsidies.
The lack of clarity regarding these funding sources becomes increasingly significant given the amount of resources needed to expand social coverage to the entire vulnerable population recognized by the authorities themselves.
Tourism versus health and agriculture
The social imbalance pointed out by Monreal coincides with an investment policy that has favored sectors like tourism for years. In 2024, Cuba
Tourism investment was nearly 14 times greater than that allocated to agriculture and over 18 times higher than that assigned to public health.
That investment model is largely controlled by GAESA, the military conglomerate with a significant presence in strategic sectors of the Cuban economy, which has been subject to successive U.S. sanctions in 2026 on the grounds that it generates revenue for the regime while the population suffers from economic decline.
Monreal's criticisms of the new economic package
Monreal has repeatedly questioned the 176 measures since they were announced. The economist has described them as a "monster" or "deformed hybrid", warned about the "vagueness" of their implementation, and denounced one of them as "anti-worker."
In August, less than two months after the announcement of the package, several provinces re-imposed price caps, a decision that contradicts the supposed goal of economic relaxation associated with some of the measures.
"The official narrative emphasizes the interrelation of the 176 measures, but it remains vague about their sequence and the social effects of an asymmetrical application. 'Unleashing productive forces' is a promise for the future: it requires time and a focus on productivity. Widespread misery, on the other hand, is experienced every day," wrote Monreal.
The economist also warned that delaying measures aimed at containing this social deterioration "would increase the risk of expanding and aggravating" the situation and would further erode popular acceptance of the regime's economic promises.
Related videos:
Filed under: