Polymarket assigns a 66% probability to a federal indictment against Díaz-Canel before the end of the year

The prediction market Polymarket estimates approximately a two-thirds chance that the United States will file a federal charge against Miguel Díaz-Canel before the end of 2026.

At the time of the consultation, the probability was 66%, according to the quotation shown by the platform, with approximately 94,400 dollars traded. The percentage is not an official forecast nor information from the U.S. government: it reflects the positions of market participants and can vary constantly. 

The contract was opened on June 30, 2026, and will be resolved as "Yes" if the federal government of the United States formally files charges or announces a criminal indictment against Díaz-Canel before 11:59 p.m. on December 31.

The primary source for determining the outcome will be official information from Washington, supplemented by a broad consensus from credible media outlets.

A precedent and an escalation of pressure

Interest in a potential prosecution against Díaz-Canel increased after the United States accused Raúl Castro and five other regime members in May of their alleged involvement in the shooting down of two aircraft from Brothers to the Rescue in 1996, a case that resulted in four deaths. 

Washington has also . However, so far there is no public criminal accusation against the current Cuban leader.

The very context of the market indicates that the measures adopted against it have primarily been economic and travel-related, while contacts between Washington and Havana continue.

The question had already appeared on Polymarket

This is not the first time the platform has presented this scenario.

In March, CiberCuba reported on a market that was asking if the United States would charge Díaz-Canel before June 30. At that time, the probability was around 26%. The deadline passed without any federal charges against the leader.

Now the deadline has been extended until the end of the year, and the expectations of the bettors are considerably higher.

A bet, not an accusation

The information must be interpreted with caution. That Polymarket shows 66% does not mean that the Department of Justice has an indictment ready, nor that there is a public criminal investigation against Díaz-Canel.

What it does reflect is that, amid the increasing U.S. pressure on Havana and following the case against Raúl Castro, a significant portion of the money wagered sees it as plausible that the conflict may enter a new phase.

For now, it remains just that: a market expectation. The definitive response will have to come, if it does, from Washington before the end of 2026.