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The Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel is among the world leaders most likely to leave power in the coming months, according to predictions from betting markets in the United States where users wager money on political events.
On the platform Kalshi, a regulated market in the United States for prediction contracts, bets indicate that there is about a 67% probability that Díaz-Canel will leave his position as first secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before January 1, 2027.
The market is part of a category that analyzes which world leaders might leave power during that period.
In this case, the output would be considered valid if the leader leaves office due to resignation, dismissal, removal, or completion of the term without renewal.
In parallel, another prediction market opened on the Polymarket platform presents a different scenario: the possibility that the federal government of the United States will file criminal charges against Díaz-Canel before June 30, 2026.
In that case, the odds currently place the likelihood of Washington formally announcing an indictment against the Cuban leader at around 26% within the established timeframe.
These markets serve as indicators of perception among bettors, who invest real money based on political analysis, publicly available information, and expectations regarding potential changes or legal actions involving certain leaders.
Beyond the technical or economic aspects, these platforms also reflect a clear political climate: the expectation of changes in power in Cuba and the growing international interest in the future of the regime on the island, amidst a crisis that has deepened the discontent of a significant portion of the population.
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