Cuba has recorded 7,133 cases of dengue in 2026, a figure that greatly exceeds the usual levels for this time of year, according to updated data from the Global Dengue Observatory (GDO) at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
The observatory, which uses official data and statistical models to estimate the progression of the disease, places the current season at elevated levels and calculates that the reported and estimated cases so far represent approximately 7.4 times the expected level based on the country's historical behavior.
"As of 2026, the reported cases far exceed the anticipated figures. Currently, the cases are on the rise, as expected for this time of year according to trends from previous years," stated the GDO in its analysis.
August recorded the highest increase
August recorded the highest monthly figure in recent months, with an estimated 3,214 cases, a number "far higher than what would typically be expected at this time of year."
In July, the estimate had been 2,173 cases.
The GDO clarifies that the official available data extends up to June, while the subsequent figures correspond to estimates made to adjust for the usual delays in epidemiological reporting.
The situation could worsen in the coming weeks. According to historical patterns of dengue in Cuba, October tends to be the month with the highest transmission activity, meaning the country may not have reached the peak of the season yet.
Four serotypes of the virus circulate on the island
The increase in cases comes after the Ministry of Public Health (MINSAP) warned in June about the risk of a dengue epidemic.
The Deputy Minister of Public Health, Carilda Peña, then warned that all four serotypes of the virus are circulating simultaneously in Cuba: DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4.
The presence of multiple serotypes increases the risk of complications, especially in individuals who have previously suffered from dengue and may become infected with a different variant of the virus.
The main sources of transmission are currently concentrated in Guantánamo, Villa Clara, and Matanzas.
As of September 9, the municipalities of Imías, Baracoa, and Guantánamo city were experiencing active transmission, with more than 30 confirmed cases by PCR and circulation of serotypes 2, 3, and 4.
This week, the Guantanamo municipality of Manuel Tames was declared in a state of alarm due to the increase in dengue cases.
In Villa Clara, the municipality of Ranchuelo reported an increase in patients with hemorrhagic dengue, with at least 12 individuals hospitalized during the outbreak.
Trash, standing water, and power outages favor the mosquito
The expansion of dengue occurs in a context marked by issues that favor the reproduction of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the main transmitter of the virus.
The accumulation of garbage, water leaks, and the need to store it during power outages have been identified by specialists and health authorities as factors that complicate vector control.
The current increase follows a 2025 marked by a strong circulation of arboviruses in Cuba. The MINSAP reported that that year more than 81,900 cases of dengue and chikungunya were recorded and acknowledged at least 55 fatalities.
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