The former Cuban ambassador Carlos Alzugaray doubts that a formal negotiation exists between the governments of Cuba and the United States. He believes that the contacts between both parties may be limited to exploratory or preliminary conversations, amid the usual opacity with which the authorities of the island handle decisions of significant political importance.
In an interview granted to El Orden Mundial, Alzugaray, who was Cuba's ambassador to the European Union and an advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MINREX), noted that the information and statements available so far do not allow for a confirmation that Havana and Washington have engaged in an actual negotiation.
"I do not take it for granted that there is a negotiation. Deputy Minister Josefina Vidal, who was the main negotiator of the memorandums of understanding signed between 2015 and 2016, has stated that there are no negotiations, but rather a dialogue. I would say that it is not even that: there have probably been exploratory or preliminary conversations," he stated.
The accuracy is significant in light of the various reports concerning contacts between Washington and representatives of Cuban power, an issue on which different regime figures have provided unclear, and in some cases, contradictory signals.
Alzugaray himself acknowledged this lack of transparency when addressing the potential differences within the ruling elite. "In Cuba, everything operates with a lot of opacity," he affirmed at another moment during the interview.
Conversations do not mean a negotiation
Alzugaray insisted on making a distinction between maintaining contacts and developing an official negotiation. As he explained, a conversation between representatives or intermediaries of two countries cannot automatically be presented as a negotiating table.
"A negotiator presents specific demands, the other party responds with what they can or cannot accept and what they need to consult with their government: that is a negotiation; everything else is just conversation," he explained.
"A negotiation presupposes an agenda and must be preceded by signals of goodwill and a willingness to find mutually beneficial solutions. In the case of the United States, neither of these exists," he stated.
Alzugaray asserts that the MINREX has officials specialized in relations with Washington, which raises questions about the reasons for turning to figures outside of the usual diplomatic channels if there is indeed a negotiation process in place.
“At the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there are entire departments dedicated to relations with the United States: legal matters, political analysis, bilateral relations… There is a highly professional team. There's no need to look for negotiators outside of those structures,” he assured.
The former ambassador also recalled that both countries maintain diplomatic channels that would allow them to directly address their differences and that historically there have been areas of cooperation, such as migration and the fight against drug trafficking.
About the U.S. strategy, Alzugaray interpreted that Washington is currently not interested in opening a conventional political negotiation with the authorities in Havana.
"As Marco Rubio has stated on various occasions, the idea is not to engage in political negotiations with the Cuban government. From the U.S. perspective, if the Cuban government is going to disappear, what is the point of negotiating with it?" he stated.
He also believed that the Cuban authorities made a mistake by trying to resort to parallel or informal channels.
"There, the Cuban government made a mistake. I can understand the desperation to try to open a channel of communication, but once it became clear what the other party's intention was, that path should have been abandoned," he noted.
Doubts about Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro as a negotiator
One of the most striking points of the interview arises precisely when discussing who could participate in those contacts or negotiations with the United States.
Alzugaray referred to Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as «El Cangrejo», grandson of Raúl Castro and son of the late general Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja, who led GAESA for many years, the business conglomerate controlled by the Armed Forces.
The former diplomat questioned the institutional capacity of Raúl Castro's grandson to assume such a role. “What can Raúl Guillermo promise to the Americans? What institutional capacity does he have to ensure compliance with an agreement?” he asked.
The former diplomat also did not rule out the possibility that "El Cangrejo" was groomed to take on responsibilities within GAESA, although he made it clear that this is merely a possibility and not a confirmed fact.
"For everything that has been leaked, I do not rule out that Raúl Guillermo has been prepared to play an important role in GAESA," he noted.
Alzugaray believes that being part of the Castro family does not automatically guarantee a position within a structure where other leaders and high-ranking officials have their own interests. He also questioned whether there is any relevant administrative experience known for Raúl Guillermo and whether he has a political network comparable to what would be needed for someone expected to play a decisive role in a potential succession.
"Is there a similar network around Raúl Guillermo today? I don't see it. He isn't even part of the Political Bureau. He doesn't participate in the meetings where the country's strategic decisions are made, and one should also question how he is viewed by the top military leaders," he stated.
Political prisoners, democracy, and relations with the United States
In the interview, Alzugaray also addresses several issues related to the political situation in Cuba, international relations, and the future of the country. Among the main topics are:
- The protesters imprisoned from the 11J: Alzugaray speaks in favor of an amnesty for those incarcerated due to the demonstrations on July 11, 2021. "I would start with the prisoners from July 11. I would decree an amnesty for all those prisoners," he states. He also believes it is a mistake that they remain imprisoned and argues, "I think they should be released."
- The authoritarian character of the Cuban system: when directly asked if Cuba is a dictatorship, the former ambassador responds that it is "an authoritarian regime with characteristics of a dictatorship," although he believes it retains some democratic elements. He ultimately defines it as "a hybrid regime, clearly authoritarian," and acknowledges that there are "significant limitations on political pluralism and certain freedoms."
- The political future of Cuba: Alzugaray states that he would like to see "a Cuba with much more democracy" and advocates for the existence of competitive elections. However, he clarifies that he does not envision an immediate transformation towards a multi-party system: "I cannot necessarily imagine a multi-party Cuba in the short term. I do not rule it out for the future, but I believe we are not at that point yet."
- The power of GAESA and the succession: the former diplomat analyzes the immense economic power accumulated by the business conglomerate of the Armed Forces during the era of Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja and the uncertainties that arose following his death. In this context, he addresses the questions regarding the potential role of Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro within GAESA and the power structure.
- The influence of the Cuban exile community in Washington: Alzugaray challenges the notion that the so-called Cuban-American lobby solely dictates the United States' policy toward the island. He reviews the impact of the Cuban American National Foundation and figures such as Jorge Mas Canosa and Bob Menéndez, as well as the changes experienced by the Cuban-American community over the past few decades.
- The relations between Cuba and the European Union: the former ambassador, who represented Havana before the EU, recounts the negotiations he sought to advance during the 1990s and advocates for the continuation of the Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement, arguing that its elimination would harm projects developed within Cuba.
Alzugaray's statements thus provide the perspective of a former official of the Cuban diplomatic apparatus on some of the main uncertainties currently surrounding power on the island.
His doubts about the existence of a formal negotiation with Washington, his questions about Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro's ability to act as an interlocutor, and his acknowledgment of the existing political restrictions in Cuba reveal a lack of public information regarding decisions that could be crucial for the country's future.
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