The Spanish economic press is once again highlighting the tourism crisis in Cuba. An analysis published this Saturday, October 10, by elEconomista, examines the plummet in international arrivals, the withdrawal of major Spanish hotel chains, and the bleak economic outlook for the island: 64.4% fewer visitors by August and a projected contraction of 10.3% in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2026.
The report, authored by Víctor de Elena and titled “The Farewell of Spanish Hotels Suffocates Cuba”, outlines the consequences for tourism due to the shortage of fuel and supplies, the cancellation of flights, and the departure of international operators. The tourism figures and economic forecast come from different organizations and correspond to different time periods: the latter is an estimate, not a recorded decline of the GDP.
Less than half a million visitors in eight months
According to the report by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), Cuba welcomed 450,353 international visitors between January and August 2026, compared to over 1.26 million in the same months of 2025. The difference was 813,979 people, a decline of 64.4%.
The decline became more pronounced in the summer. In August, only 30,490 international visitors arrived, fewer than the 32,272 in July. As CiberCuba reported on September 25, the downturn affected the main source markets: Canada recorded 128,400 visitors, a drop of 75.6% compared to the previous year; Russia had 21,563, a 73.3% decrease; and Spain saw 10,447, a decline of 68.2%.
The decline in reserves and air connectivity threatens a crucial source of foreign currency for the island. The shortage of aviation fuel and difficulties in ensuring basic services have compounded a tourism crisis that was already evident before the latest measures from Washington.
Spanish chains abandoned hotel management
One of the key points of analysis from elEconomista is the exit of Meliá, Iberostar, and Barceló, companies that played a central role in the operation of Cuban hotels for decades. CiberCuba reported in July on the cessation of their operations, following the expansion of U.S. sanctions against entities linked to the state's tourism and military sector on the island.
In an official communication to the National Securities Market Commission of Spain, Meliá announced that, starting July 24, it would cease to provide management and marketing services at all its establishments in Cuba. The company attributed its decision to operational, legal, economic, and financial difficulties that prevented it from maintaining a minimum level of stability. At the beginning of the year, it had been managing 34 hotels in Cuba.
Iberostar, which had 18 establishments under management, first abandoned 12 and later the remaining six. Barceló also ceased operations at two hotels in Varadero. The withdrawal of foreign brands does not mean, by itself, that all properties have permanently closed: many establishments are owned by Cuban state companies and what ended were the management and international marketing contracts.
Part of these facilities belonged to Gaviota, a tourist company integrated into GAESA, the business conglomerate linked to the Armed Forces. U.S. sanctions influenced the withdrawal of operators, while the lack of supplies, the deterioration of services, power outages, and low demand had weakened the business even before that.
The ECLAC forecasts a GDP decline of 10.3%
The tourism outlook aligns with an even more severe forecast for the national economy. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimates that Cuba's GDP contracted by 3.8% in 2025 and projects a decline of 10.3% in 2026, the largest anticipated among countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. For 2027, another drop of 5.1% is anticipated.
These figures are projections subject to revision, not definitive economic results. The decline in tourism exacerbates the lack of foreign currency, but the projected contraction reflects broader issues: low production, an energy crisis, fuel shortages, difficulties in importing, and insufficient investment in essential sectors.
Closed hotels and workers without activity
The cost of the crisis also falls on those who depend on tourism and its associated services. In July, the Cuban Prime Minister, Manuel Marrero, acknowledged that 73% of hotel facilities were closed and about 25,000 workers were in a state of availability. These figures correspond to the official report at that time, not to a new count from October.
The magnitude of the collapse also calls into question the Cuban government's commitment to expanding hotel infrastructure while deficits in electricity, food, and transportation persist. Cuba ended 2025 with around 1.8 million international visitors, far from the more than four million it used to receive annually before the pandemic.
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