The advanced age of Raúl Castro raises a question that the Cuban exile community has been debating for some time: Does he still hold the reins of power in Cuba, or is his figure merely a shallow symbol of authority? Analysts discussed this topic on CiberCuba and concluded that perhaps it no longer matters who is in charge, as the system he built operates on its own.
In September, rumors began to spread about the death or, at the very least, the fragile health of Raúl Castro who, as is customary in these situations, reappeared a few days later alongside Díaz-Canel at an event marking the 65th anniversary of the Personal Security Directorate of MININT, sitting in the front row and remaining silent.
Writer Camilo Venegas, who participated in the CiberCuba discussion alongside Frank Rodríguez and Jorge de Armas, was direct in stating that the debate about the former leader's health distracts from what truly matters. "He is simply a symbol of repression in Cuba, a symbol of absolute power and the greatest emblem of the yoke that Cubans bear, both inside and outside of Cuba, which prevents them from living freely in their own country. Therefore, his state of health is irrelevant. What truly matters is the weight of that symbol."
Venegas also emphasized that a 95-year-old man—Castro will reach that age on June 3, 2026—"can in no way be at the head of a state nor have a stance on matters," and that what is appropriate is to discuss his absence from the real world. "We do not know what he thinks of the reforms, we do not know his opinion on the garbage not being collected, we do not know how he feels about people cooking with coal."
For his part, journalist Jorge de Armas was even more blunt about the political implications of a possible death of the former leader. "The death of Raúl Castro, which is a highly desired and anticipated biological matter... what specific weight could that death have for the future of Cuba? Nothing. Absolutely nothing." He added that the only tangible outcome would be "a caravan from Havana to Santiago de Cuba, wasting the fuel that Cuba does not have."
De Armas also warned about the risk that the political entertainment surrounding Raúl may benefit the regime. "Everything that entertains the exile ultimately benefits them. And we are living in a significant culture of political entertainment."
Analyst Frank Rodríguez emphasized that the death would have historical significance — "the original founders' generation finally comes to an end" — but acknowledged that successors remain. He also suggested that Cuba will adopt a dynastic model similar to that of North Korea, whose current leader is the grandson of the communist founder, and noted that "the focus shifts to Tuerto and Cangrejo," referring to figures in the Castro environment who would already be acting as interlocutors for the Trump Administration, in negotiations of which only the existence is known.
The effective power, the three panelists agreed, has been shared for years between the Armed Forces, the business conglomerate GAESA —estimated to be responsible for between 40% and 70% of the Cuban economy— and figures such as Alejandro Castro Espín, son of Raúl and a colonel linked to the intelligence apparatus (known as El Tuerto).
A preliminary analysis by Camilo Venegas indicated that Díaz-Canel could be transformed into a "scapegoat" following Raúl's death, being sidelined and held accountable for the accumulated crisis while the military system would safeguard its true power structure.
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