The Electric Union (UNE) predicted a maximum impact of 1,680 MW for this Saturday during the peak evening demand period, according to the official information note published on social media by the state entity.
The deficit is structural: the National Electric System (SEN) has only 1,250 MW of availability compared to a projected demand of 2,900 MW, resulting in a gap of 1,650 MW that directly leads to blackouts for millions of Cubans.
The engineer Lázaro Guerra Hernández, general director of Electricity at the Ministry of Energy and Mines, provided the technical report on the state channel Canal Caribe and specified that by noon the estimated impact would be 1,350 MW, while at eight in the morning, 1,229 MW were already reported without service throughout the country.
"We are forecasting a system capacity of 1,250 MW for peak demand, with a maximum demand of 2,900 MW predicted and an impact on service of 1,680 MW," stated Guerra Hernández.
The Friday event was even more severe: the actual maximum impact reached 1,886 MW, nearly identical to the forecast of 1,880 MW that the official had anticipated.
The slight improvement this Saturday compared to the previous day is explained by the nighttime reintegration of three generating units that had been out of service: the thermoelectric Antonio Guiteras in Matanzas —the largest in the country, with a nominal capacity of about 300 MW—, a unit from Santa Cruz del Norte, and unit 8 of the thermoelectric Máximo Gómez in Mariel.
The Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant was reported on Saturday generating 155 MW and stabilizing parameters, according to UNE itself. Its recent history reflects the fragility of the system: it was synchronized on October 4 after a failure in the reheater, managed to generate about 180 MW the following day, and was disconnected again on Friday due to a fault in a steam tempering line.
"Today, the impacts will also be significant throughout the day, without a doubt, but lesser than those we experienced yesterday due to the integration of these three units," Guerra Hernández warned.
The official also revealed a fact that illustrates the depth of the crisis: more than 1,200 MW of installed capacity remains technically available but completely inactive due to a lack of imported fuel.
"To significantly reduce the impacts, it is necessary to have fuel for the over 1,200 MW that are technically available but for which we do not have imported fuel to generate electricity using these technologies," he stated.
The entire electricity generation of the country is currently supported by crude oil extracted from Cuban fields, associated gas from oil, and solar photovoltaic energy, which only operates during daylight hours.
As the sun sets, the system is supported solely by thermal power plants and Energas machines, whose capacity is insufficient to meet national demand.
The external supply situation is critical: so far in 2026, Cuba has only secured one fuel import, the donation from the Russian government that arrived on March 31 at the Matanzas supertanker base.
"The country is going through the tenth month of the year, a year in which only one fuel import has been realized, which was a donation from the Russian government that arrived on March 31 at the Matanzas supertanker base. Ten months without fuel imports for electricity generation and for basic economic programs," emphasized Guerra Hernández.
The context of September highlights the extent of the collapse: 23 out of 28 days of the month exceeded a maximum impact of 2,000 MW, with an approximate average of 2,093 MW, according to reports from the SEN.
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