An analysis from the Cato Institute published on Wednesday by researcher David J. Bier reveals that the Trump administration reduced legal entries into the United States 2.7 times more than irregular entries.
The report uses data available up to February 2026, challenging the official argument that the tightening of immigration policies is aimed solely at reducing unauthorized crossings.
The drop in legal immigration reached approximately 144,569 monthly entries, compared to 53,128 in irregular entries. In proportional terms, 73% of the total decline was attributed to legal pathways, not unauthorized border crossings.
Las políticas migratorias de Trump siguen transformando el panorama para miles de familias cubanas. Mantente informado con nuestra cobertura en
The most affected categories are precisely those used by individuals looking to reunite with their families or build a life in the United States through formal channels: K visas for fiancés and spouses of U.S. citizens fell 61% between February 2024 and February 2026.
Student visas decreased 42% during the same period, while H-1B and H-4 visas for specialized workers and their family members plummeted 78%.
Refugee admissions dropped by 90%, and legal entries of asylum seekers at border ports nearly vanished: from about 40,000 in December 2024 to just 26 in February 2026, following the removal of the CBP One application.
The report clarifies a fact that the Trump administration often presents as its own achievement. They claim that Border Patrol arrests at the southern border had already decreased by 81% between December 2023 and December 2024, before Trump returned to the White House in January 2025.
For the Cuban diaspora, the cumulative impact of these policies is particularly severe.
Permanent residency approvals for Cubans plummeted 99.8% between October 2024 and January 2026. They dropped from 10,984 in February 2025 to only 15 in January 2026.
In February 2025, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) suspended all applications from those who had entered under the CHNV parole program —Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela— canceling their status to facilitate arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The arrests of Cubans by ICE increased by 463%, rising from fewer than 200 per month at the end of 2024 to over 1,000 per month by the end of 2025. More than 935,000 applications for immigration benefits from Cubans have been put on hold.
In addition, other measures are being implemented: the end of the Cuban Family Reunification Program (CFRP), which has been in effect since 2007, set to conclude on December 15, 2025; Presidential Proclamation 10998, effective from January 1, 2026, which suspended all immigrant visas for Cubans—including categories for spouses, children, and parents of U.S. citizens; and the global suspension of immigrant visa appointment at embassies and consulates, announced in August under the pretext of a global training on "public charge" criteria.
A federal court annulled in August the suspension of immigrant visas for the 75 affected countries —including Cuba— calling it "patently illegal," but Proclamation 10998 remains in effect and Cuba remains blocked.
The impact of these policies on the Cuban community extends beyond the general reduction in legal immigration documented by the Cato Institute. The termination of the family reunification parole program (CFRP), visa restrictions, and measures against humanitarian parole (CHNV) have limited the options for those seeking to emigrate legally or reunite with their family members in the United States.
The consequences also affect Cubans who are already on U.S. territory. The decline in permanent residency approvals, the suspension of immigration processes, and the increase in detentions by ICE have complicated their situation. While some families face greater obstacles in reuniting, others are struggling to regularize their status and remain legally in the country.
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