Miguel Díaz-Canel published a message on his social media this Sunday to congratulate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on his victory in the run-off presidential election in Brazil, describing the outcome as a "historic victory" for the Brazilian people and offering Cuba's collaboration to promote Latin American and Caribbean integration.
"Dear brother Lula, I congratulate you on behalf of the Cuban government and people for this historic victory that ensures the continuity of the path of peace, sovereignty, and social justice undertaken by the Brazilian people under your leadership. Brazil can count on Cuba in the construction of the unity and integration of our Great Homeland, Latin American and Caribbean," wrote the Cuban leader.
Lula, 80 years old, achieved a historically unprecedented comeback in the runoff on October 25: he received 51.78% of the votes compared to 48.22% for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the Superior Electoral Court with 99.99% of the ballots counted. The margin exceeded four million votes: 64.2 million for Lula compared to 59.8 million for Flávio Bolsonaro. No candidate who had lost the first round had managed to overturn the result in the runoff since the two-round system was first applied in the presidential elections of 1989.
With this victory, Lula secures his fourth presidential term. In the first round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro had outpaced Lula with 47.03% compared to 45.16%, a difference of approximately 2.2 million votes. The key to this comeback was Minas Gerais, the second largest electoral college in the country, where Lula turned around a defeat from the first round and won with over 50% in the second round.
The victory has direct implications for Havana. Under the current Brazilian government, Brazil has become an essential South American ally of the regime: in March, it announced the shipment of approximately 20,800 tons of food —rice, black beans, and powdered milk— through the World Food Program, and in May donated medications to treat about 1,000 Cuban patients.
In July, 48 tons of powdered milk arrived in Santiago de Cuba on flights from the Brazilian Air Force. A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro could have signaled a shift in relations with Havana, reminiscent of his father's term (2019-2022), when Brazil broke its tradition of voting at the UN against the US embargo on Cuba and reduced its diplomatic representation on the island. In November 2018, when Jair Bolsonaro was still the president-elect, the Cuban government decided to withdraw its doctors from the Mais Médicos program after rejecting the announced conditions for its continuation.
Díaz-Canel's congratulatory message, however, omits the tensions that define the bilateral relationship. Cuba owes Brazil 676 million dollars related to loans from the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) for the construction of the Port of Mariel, with defaults since May 2018. A law enacted by Lula in March prohibits BNDES from granting new loans to finance service exports to foreign public entities that are in arrears unless a debt renegotiation is formalized. This provision affects Cuba due to its defaults. Additionally, almost 17,000 Cubans sought asylum in Brazil between January and May 2026, averaging about 3,400 per month, reflecting the exodus caused by the structural crisis on the island.
Díaz-Canel thus joined a chorus of leftist Latin American leaders who celebrated the outcome. Former Colombian President Gustavo Petro wrote on X: "Fascism has been halted in Latin America, in Brazil." Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum celebrated the result with the message: "Long live democracy, the people of Brazil have won. Congratulations President Lula!" Former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner compared the election day to a "true electoral October 17," referencing a significant date in Peronism.
From Washington, Donald Trump had been more reserved about the electoral day: "I don't want to get into that matter, but we are watching," he stated.
The Cuban ambassador to Brazil, Víctor Manuel Cairo Palomo, had anticipated Havana's stance in any scenario. When asked about a possible victory for Flávio Bolsonaro, the diplomat stated, "Our historical relations are much stronger than any specific issue."
Entities linked to the Cuban regime had issued an open statement of support for Lula at the beginning of October, in which they denounced, without providing evidence, an alleged funding from American and Israeli lobbies to undermine the Brazilian president.
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