Miguel Díaz-Canel published a message on his social media this Sunday to congratulate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on his triumph in the second round of Brazil's presidential election, describing the result as a «historic victory» for the Brazilian people and extending the solidarity of the Cuban regime to the leftist leader.
"Dear brother Lula, I congratulate you on behalf of the Cuban government and people for this historic victory that guarantees the continuation of the path of peace, sovereignty, and social justice embarked upon by the Brazilian people under your leadership. Brazil can count on Cuba in the construction of unity and integration for our Great Homeland, Latinoamericana and Caribbean," wrote the Cuban leader.
Lula, at 80 years old, achieved a historically unprecedented comeback in the runoff on October 25: he received 51.78% of the votes compared to 48.22% for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the Superior Electoral Court with 99.99% of the ballots counted. The difference surpassed four million votes: 64.2 against 59.8. No candidate who had lost the first round had managed to overturn the result in the runoff since the constitutional reform of 1988 established that system.
With this triumph, Lula begins his fourth presidential term. In the first round on October 4th, Flávio Bolsonaro had led over Lula with 47.06% compared to 45.13%, a difference of approximately 2.3 million votes. A key factor in the comeback was Minas Gerais, the second largest electoral college in the country, where Lula reversed a defeat from the first round and won with over 50% in the second round.
Victory has direct implications for Havana. Under the current Brazilian government, Brazil has become an essential South American ally of the regime: in March it announced the shipment of approximately 20,800 tons of food —rice, black beans, and powdered milk— through the World Food Program, and in May donated medications to treat nearly 1,000 Cuban patients.
In July, 48 tons of powdered milk arrived in Santiago de Cuba on flights from the Brazilian Air Force. A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would have meant the return of his father's policies, who during his term (2019-2022) broke Brazil's tradition of voting at the UN against the embargo on Cuba, minimized diplomatic representation in Havana, and caused —even before he was officially president— the withdrawal of Cuban doctors from the Mais Médicos program.
Díaz-Canel's congratulatory message, however, overlooks the tensions that characterize the bilateral relationship. Cuba owes Brazil 676 million dollars related to loans from the National Bank of Economic and Social Development for the construction of the Port of Mariel, with unpaid debts since May 2018. A law enacted by Lula himself in March prohibits new loans to defaulting countries, which would exclude Cuba from future financing. Additionally, almost 17,000 Cubans have applied for asylum in Brazil just between January and May 2026, averaging about 3,400 per month, reflecting the exodus caused by the structural crisis on the island.
Díaz-Canel thus joined a chorus of leftist Latin American leaders who celebrated the outcome. Former Colombian president Gustavo Petro wrote on X: "Fascism has been halted in Latin America, in Brazil." Meanwhile, Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum celebrated the result with the message: "Long live democracy, the people of Brazil won. Congratulations President Lula!" Former Argentine president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner compared the election day to a "genuine October 17 electoral," referring to an emblematic date in Peronism.
From Washington, Donald Trump had been more circumspect regarding the electoral day: "I don't want to get into that matter, but we are watching," he stated.
The Cuban ambassador in Brazil, Víctor Manuel Cairo Palomo, had anticipated Havana's position regarding any scenario. When asked about a possible victory of Flávio Bolsonaro, the diplomat stated: "Our historical relations are much stronger than any specific issue."
Entities linked to the Cuban regime had released an open manifesto of support for Lula at the beginning of October, accusing the United States and Israel of financing the Brazilian opposition.
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