Five days ahead of the legislative elections on November 3, an analysis by the Associated Press published this Thursday warns that Donald Trump's immigration crackdown—one of the cornerstones of his return to the White House—has sparked a growing backlash that threatens to harm the Republicans at the polls.
The piece, signed by Tim Sullivan and Nicholas Riccardi, outlines how the border chaos that dominated the screens during the 2024 campaign has been replaced by images of violent raids in American cities.
The turning point came in January 2026 in Minneapolis, where over 2,000 federal agents deployed operations with unmarked vehicles and masked agents. During these events, two American citizens lost their lives: Renee Good and Alex Pretti, both 37 years old.
Las redadas, deportaciones y cambios en la política migratoria de Trump siguen marcando la agenda política en EE.UU. Mantente informado en nuestra sección de
After the deaths, the White House removed the head of the Border Patrol, Gregory Bovino, and the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem. Despite this, arrests reached record levels again: nearly 51,000 arrests in August, according to the Department of Homeland Security, compared to 49,000 in July and 43,000 in June.
The Immigration Policy Institute estimates that deportations in fiscal year 2026 will be around 660,000 people, below the target of one million annually set by the administration.
The Democratic Senator from Maryland Chris Van Hollen summed up the paradox harshly: "The American people supported strong border security. Instead, what they got was the dismantling of the Constitution, mass deportations, and the deaths of American citizens on the streets of Minneapolis."
The AP analysis illustrates the fracture within the Republican Party itself with the case of Cuban-American Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar, representative of Florida's 27th District.
In September, she recorded a campaign advertisement in front of the White House where she stated that Trump's immigration policies “have gone too far” and warned that Hispanic voters who supported him in 2024 might feel “betrayed.”
Salazar also promotes the Dignity Law, a bipartisan initiative that would allow immigrants with no criminal records to obtain legal status if they arrived before December 31, 2020, pay owed taxes, and contribute around $7,000 in restitution.
However, an automated call from the Democratic super PAC Battleground Alliance, rated as “largely accurate” by PolitiFact, accuses her of having voted in favor of 83 billion dollars for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), including funding for new detention centers and 10,000 additional agents.
In that context, the tension is particularly acute for the Cuban-American community in Miami-Dade.
The FIU Cuba Poll 2026 revealed that 76% oppose the deportation of Cubans without criminal records, and 87% demand the resumption of immigration benefits processing. Among Cubans who arrived after 2020, opposition to deportations reaches 92%.
Despite this rejection, 68% of respondents stated that they will vote for Republican candidates on November 3, indicating that disapproval of immigration policy does not automatically translate into a party switch.
Trump, for his part, shows no signs of moderating his rhetoric. In a recent rally in Florida, he accused the Democrats of allowing migrants to "flood the U.S. borders from all corners of the world" and issued a direct warning: "If they win in the midterms, they will do it again."
National surveys show a shift among Hispanic voters: according to a poll by NBC News and Telemundo from early October, Hispanics favor Democratic control of Congress by 59% to 35%, a 24-point advantage that doubles the margin recorded by the same survey in 2024.
Related videos:
Filed under: