The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) urged the public on Tuesday to remain calm and rely solely on official sources of information, in light of a U.S. model suggesting the potential formation of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean Sea between May 19 and 20.
According to Insmet, as explained on their Facebook profile, this is a simulation from the GFS (Global Forecast System) model, which has led to speculation and concern on social media.
However, the entity clarified that forecasts made more than five or six days in advance typically have a high margin of error and may change significantly in future updates.
“There is a lot of uncertainty in a forecast for 12 or 13 days from now, as one run of the model may show the tropical system and the next may not show anything at all,” noted Insmet in a publication.
The institute emphasized that the most important thing is not to panic, but to stay well-informed through official channels such as Insmet itself, the Civil Defense, and the provincial meteorological centers.
"The weather forecasts are not based on just one model. Multiple tools are used, and in addition, the analysis of meteorologists and their professional judgment is taken into account," he added.
Insmet reminded that the atmosphere is dynamic and changing, but prevention must be constant, urging the public to stay alert without falling into speculation.
If necessary, official notices will be issued in advance, the institution emphasized.
Finally, the entity urged people to avoid sharing unconfirmed forecasts that could cause panic and to update family plans in light of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1st.
As reliable sources to consult, Insmet highlighted its official website, the Forecast Center, Cuban meteorological radars, the Environment Agency, the Ministry of Science, Technology, and the Environment of Cuba (CITMA), and the provincial meteorological centers.
On the other hand, Insmet announced this Wednesday its official forecast for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season, warning of an active period in terms of tropical system formation, with a moderate risk of direct impact on the country.
According to the post on the social network Facebook, the expected oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate a favorable environment for the formation of tropical cyclones, including still elevated sea temperatures and the cessation of the La Niña phenomenon, which will lead to neutral conditions in the Pacific.
The report details that 15 tropical cyclones are expected throughout the North Atlantic basin, with 8 of them potentially reaching hurricane category. By regions, it indicates that 10 would form in the open Atlantic, 3 in the Caribbean Sea, and 2 in the Gulf of Mexico.
In April, Colorado State University (CSU) released an initial forecast detailing that the 2025 hurricane season will be more active than usual.
According to the report, 17 named storms are expected, of which nine could reach hurricane strength and four could achieve major category (three or more on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
Frequently Asked Questions about the Possible Formation of a Cyclone in the Caribbean and Its Impact on Cuba
Is it true that a tropical cyclone will form in the Caribbean in mid-May?
The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) has reported the possible formation of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean Sea between May 19 and May 20, according to a U.S. model. However, they emphasize that forecasts made this far in advance can change and it is important to rely only on official sources.
What are Insmet's recommendations for the Cuban population in light of the possible formation of a cyclone?
Insmet recommends staying calm and only following official sources such as Insmet itself, the Civil Defense, and provincial meteorological centers. Additionally, they advise updating family plans and avoiding the sharing of unconfirmed forecasts.
What factors are favoring the potential formation of cyclones in the Caribbean this season?
The current oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favorable for the formation of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean, with elevated sea temperatures and environmental conditions that facilitate their development. This has been noted in forecasts for the 2025 hurricane season, which anticipate above-average activity.
What are the chances of a cyclone directly affecting Cuba this season?
According to the forecast from the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba for 2025, there is a 50% chance that at least one hurricane will directly impact Cuba during the hurricane season. This represents an increase compared to the national historical average.
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