The probability of the formation of a tropical depression near Cuba is increasing.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for the gradual development of this system over the next few days.

Mapa con el pronóstico de formación de una depresión tropical © NOAA
Map with the forecast for the formation of a tropical depressionPhoto © NOAA

This week, it is likely that a tropical depression will form near Cuba, according to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

At 8:00 am this Sunday, the center issued a report warning about the possible formation of a tropical depression south of Cuba, in the northwest Caribbean Sea.

"The environmental conditions appear favorable for the gradual development of this system over the next few days," the report states.

At this moment, there are disorganized rains and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea and parts of Central America, which are associated with a very large area of low pressure.

"It is likely that a tropical depression will form as the system slowly moves north through the northwest Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico until the end of the week," it adds.

Although the chance of development is only 10% in the next 48 hours, over the next seven days, the figure increases to 70% as it moves north through the Gulf of Mexico.

During these days, regardless of its development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains in parts of Central America.

In Cuba, attention remains focused on the phenomenon, which could gradually gain strength as it moves, aided by the warm sea temperatures and the reduction of vertical wind shear in the region.

The Cuban meteorologist Raydel Ruisanchez warned on his social media about the possible formation of this phenomenon in the western Caribbean and urged the population to stay alert to its progress.

"Nothing has been formed yet, but we will be paying close attention and will see if it materializes," he pointed out.

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