So far, ETECSA's controversial announcement to impose restrictions on mobile top-ups in Cuban pesos and new dollarized services has not significantly impacted the informal foreign exchange market.
At dawn this Tuesday, the dollar remains valued at 370 CUP, a price it has predominantly maintained for several weeks, with a brief increase to 372 pesos on Saturday, May 31, just the day after the so-called rate hike.
However, the dollar took a step back, readjusting its value to 370 CUP, where it remains stable, as the median values also show no movement.
On June 3rd, both the euro and the freely convertible currency (MLC) remain unchanged, valued at 395 and 265, respectively, according to the daily report from elTOQUE.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Exchange rate today 03/06/2025 - 9:21 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 370 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 395 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 265 CUP.
Equivalencies of each available euro and US dollar bill to Cuban pesos (CUP)
United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates of this June 3rd:
USD 1 = 370 CUP.
USD 5 = 1,850 CUP.
USD 10 = 3,700 CUP.
USD 20 = 7,400 CUP.
USD 50 = 18,500 CUP.
USD 100 = 37,000 CUP.
EUROS (EUR)
1 EUR = 395 CUP.
5 EUR = 1,975 CUP.
10 EUR = 3,950 CUP.
20 EUR = 7,900 CUP.
50 EUR = 19,750 CUP.
100 EUR = 39,500 CUP.
200 EUR = 79,000 CUP.
500 EUR = 197,500 CUP.
Last week, it was reported that the Observatory of Coins and Finances of Cuba (OMFi), an entity associated with elTOQUE, has developed a methodology that -according to their claims- allows for highly accurate predictions of movements in the informal currency market on the island, especially concerning the dollar.
An article published by the mentioned independent media outlet specified that thanks to the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, the OMFi has achieved 94% accuracy in its forecasts regarding the value of the dollar.
According to economist Pavel Vidal, the principal investigator of the project, "forecasts are useful for a wide range of economic actors," from citizens who need to buy foreign currency for remittances or travel, to entrepreneurs who import products and need to protect their margins against market volatility.
The key to the model is the use of real-time data, gathered through artificial intelligence from social networks and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded.
The mentioned source revealed that this informational advantage has significantly reduced the uncertainty regarding the evolution of the exchange rate.
Factors that hinder predictions
The analysis of OMFi shows that the exchange rate in the Cuban informal market is highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors.
One of the most critical moments occurred in August and September 2023, when banking measures were announced, and in December 2024, following statements by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero regarding a possible floating exchange rate.
There were also significant errors between May and June 2024, amid the so-called "herd effect," and following government announcements that abruptly changed expectations.
Despite this, in 2025 the accuracy has improved, with an average margin of error of only 1.8% in the first four months.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Currency Market in Cuba
What is the current exchange rate of the dollar in the Cuban informal market?
The current exchange rate of the US dollar in the Cuban informal market is 370 CUP. This value has been predominant in recent weeks, with slight fluctuations.
What is the current exchange rate for the euro in Cuba's informal market?
The euro is currently trading at 395 CUP in Cuba's informal market. This value has remained stable recently, with no significant changes.
What is the value of the freely convertible currency (MLC) in the Cuban market?
The freely convertible currency (MLC) is trading at 265 CUP in the Cuban informal market. This value has shown recent stability.
How does the volatility of the exchange market affect the Cuban economy?
The volatility of the currency market in Cuba affects the purchasing power of citizens, especially in a context of scarcity and inflation. Cubans rely on foreign currency to purchase essential products and protect their savings against the devaluation of the Cuban peso.
What methodology does the Observatory of Currencies and Finance of Cuba (OMFi) use to predict the currency market?
The OMFi uses artificial intelligence and econometric models to predict with 94% accuracy the movements of the informal currency market in Cuba. The key lies in the use of real-time data gathered from social media and digital platforms.
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