This Saturday, June 21, 2025, the National Electric System (SEN) is facing one of its worst scenarios to date, with expected disruptions approaching 1,770 MW, highlighting a trend of ongoing deterioration over the past week.
According to the official report from Unión Eléctrica, the electrical service on Friday the 20th was interrupted for 24 hours, extending into the early hours of today. The maximum recorded deficit was 1,838 MW at 10:30 PM, significantly exceeding the planned figures due to a demand higher than anticipated and the unexpected outage of Unit 6 in Mariel.
As of 7:00 a.m., the availability was 1,750 MW against a demand of 3,120 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,389 MW. This figure is expected to remain close to this value around noon, with an additional projected shortfall of about 1,350 MW.
Thermal limitations amount to 433 MW out of service, and 81 distributed generation plants—due to lack of fuel—are not operating, totaling 803 MW, in addition to another 80 MW affected by lack of oil in engines. Overall, distributed generation experiences a shortfall of 883 MW.
It is estimated that during the peak night hours between this Saturday and Sunday, Unit 6 of the Diez de Octubre Power Plant will come online with 100 MW, raising the estimated peak availability to 1,850 MW. Against a projected demand of 3,550 MW, the deficit would reach 1,700 MW, which means a shortfall of 1,770 MW.
Comparison with the previous week
On the past Father's Day (June 15), a peak deficit of 1,425 MW was registered, with a maximum impact of 1,669 MW, resulting from breakdowns in several thermal power plants and a lack of fuel in distributed generators.
The next day, power outages lasted up to 20 hours, impacting daily activities, food preparation, and the rest of the population, with no improvement from the previous day.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the UNE reported a demand of 3,000 MW at the beginning of the day, with availability of only 1,810 MW (a deficit of 1,213 MW). During peak hours, the impact exceeded 1,700 MW.
The figures show a pattern of increasing deficit, with the impact during peak hours rising from 1,669 MW on June 15 to over 1,729 MW on the 18th, and dangerously approaching 1,800 MW this Saturday, demonstrating a continuous worsening.
The 16 new photovoltaic parks have generated between 1,612 MWh and 1,748 MWh daily, with power peaks between 368 MW and 412 MW at noon. However, these contributions are still insufficient to compensate for thermal deficits, highlighting the fragility of Cuba's energy infrastructure.
The ongoing crisis of the SEN is worsening. The week ended with a sustained increase in the deficit and longer blackouts, greater pressure on thermal and distributed generation, and a clear inability of renewable complements to mitigate the impact.
If no structural changes are made—such as an increase in thermal capacity or a real acceleration of renewable projects—the normalization of service will remain out of reach; citizens will continue to endure continuous and prolonged blackouts, with serious implications for daily life, health, and family economy.
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