Las Tunas is losing its population: it has lost 11.5% of its inhabitants in the last eight years

The province of Las Tunas lost 11.5% of its population in the last eight years, a demographic decline that highlights aging, sustained emigration, and the lack of generational replacement.

The eastern region concluded 2024 with 475,343 inhabitants; 61,878 fewer than in 2016, when 537,221 residents were recorded.

Only from 2022 to 2024, there are 53,510 fewer residents in Las Tunas. The figure is impossible to disguise: the province is losing its population, as highlighted in an infographic published by the official newspaper 26.

The decline is not uniform. The provincial capital houses 40% of the population, while municipalities like Jesús Menéndez and Majibacoa remain distinctly rural, with less than 35% of their residents in urban areas. These regions, distant from centers of attention and investment, experience a reality similar to that of Yateras (Guantánamo) or Jimaguayú (Camagüey), two of the most behind municipalities in the country.

Emigration hits relentlessly. The eight municipalities in Las Tunas lose residents every year for this reason. The most affected are Las Tunas, Manatí, and Jobabo, as the data shows, reflecting a growing despair, even in areas previously considered more dynamic. The exodus does not discriminate: young people, adults, and professionals seek outside what they can no longer find at home.

Meanwhile, aging is accelerating. A quarter of the population in Tunero is 60 years old or older, and in Jesús Menéndez, that figure rises to 26.5%, surpassing even the national average. Majibacoa is the "youngest" municipality, yet almost 24% of its inhabitants are elderly.

In terms of gender, the ratio remains nearly balanced: 49.7% women and 50.3% men. However, in municipalities like Jobabo and Manatí, the male presence is significantly higher, a pattern also observed in other rural areas of the country. Only in the provincial capital do women constitute the majority of the effective population.

The demographic snapshot of Las Tunas in 2025 is clear and concerning. What was once a trend is now a done deal: fewer births, increased emigration, an aging population, and a diminished future. The province needs more than plans and speeches; it requires real solutions before the depopulation becomes irreversible.

The Provincial Council of Social Sciences of Guantánamo recently acknowledged the severe population decline faced by the territory, with more than 40,000 inhabitants lost since 2019, of which 38,000 belong to the working-age population.

This mass exodus reflects the progressive impoverishment of the province and the failure of policies to encourage the retention and development of its residents, particularly the youth. It also illustrates the precariousness that hits rural communities the hardest.

Cuba is experiencing an unprecedented demographic crisis. In 2024, the country lost more than 300,000 inhabitants and recorded its lowest birth rate in decades.

By the end of 2024, the effective population on the island was below 10 million inhabitants and the lowest number of births in over six decades was recorded, confirmed at the end of May by the Deputy Head of ONEI, Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga.

According to the ONEI, between 2020 and 2024 Cuba lost more than 1.4 million inhabitants, with a natural decrease of 56,740 people in just the last year.

However, an independent demographic study indicated that the resident population in Cuba is now below eight million people. This figure represents a 24% decline in just four years, a number comparable to wartime scenarios.

The study, conducted by the renowned Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, which was accessed by the agency EFE, estimates that by the end of 2024, 8,025,624 people were living on the island, significantly lower than what is reflected in the official Cuban statistics.

The phenomenon of the sustained decline in birth rates has been accompanied by a high level of demographic aging, positioning Cuba as the most aged country in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Currently, 25.7% of the Cuban population is 60 years old or older, a rate comparable to that of developed countries, but without the institutional or economic support that characterizes those contexts. The provinces most affected by this phenomenon are Villa Clara, at 29.1%, and Havana, at 28.1%, the only ones exceeding 28%.

The Cuban economist Pedro Monreal argues that this conjunction of phenomena has “a significant negative impact” and warns that the policies implemented to date to address aging “are not sufficient.” Furthermore, he points out that there is no strategic vision of public policy to address this challenge in a comprehensive manner.

Frequently Asked Questions about Population Decline in Las Tunas and the Demographic Crisis in Cuba