A recent report from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) forecasts two more years of severe economic difficulties for Cuba, placing the country among the worst in the continent in terms of economic performance and inflationary stability.
The report anticipates that the Cuban economy will decline by 1.5% in 2025 and will experience virtually no growth in 2026, with a growth of only 0.1%. Only Haiti is projected to have worse economic indicators in the region, according to the analysis released by Cuban economist Pedro Monreal, and
The study also classifies Cuba as one of the five Latin American countries with "chronic inflation", ranking it as having the third highest inflation on the continent in 2024.
Due to this situation, Cuba was excluded from the calculation of regional and subregional averages, highlighting the magnitude of its inflation crisis.
These data confirm the previous warnings from independent analysts, who have pointed out that the country is facing a dangerous combination of rising debt, productive collapse, an expanding informal market, and a sustained loss of purchasing power.
The CEPAL report does not make direct mention of specific government policies, but it suggests that the current levels of structural distortion and lack of liquidity will hinder any sustainable recovery in the short term.
The situation is exacerbated by limited access to external financing and a low level of foreign investment, amid a complex geopolitical landscape.
The CEPAL forecast comes at a time when Cuban authorities are insisting on their plan for "gradual recovery," while the population is experiencing a chronic shortage of food, medicine, energy, and transportation, amid one of the worst crises since the 1990s.
In general, ECLAC warns that the Latin America and Caribbean region continues to experience a prolonged period of low growth. The real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow by an average of 2.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, maintaining the rates recorded in 2023 and 2024.
The Cuban regime itself has officially admitted that the country's recovery is still a long way off.
"A lot remains to be done," acknowledged Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz, while presenting the results of the so-called "Government Program to correct distortions and re-boost the economy" to the National Assembly of People's Power.
The acknowledgment, although cloaked in triumphalist language, reveals the wear of the current economic model and the government's inability to reverse a situation that many Cubans experience with daily anguish: prolonged blackouts, shortages, uncontrolled inflation, and increasing uncertainty about the future.
Frequently asked questions about the economic crisis in Cuba
What is the economic forecast for Cuba in the coming years according to CEPAL?
CEPAL forecasts that the Cuban economy will decline by 1.5% in 2025 and will experience virtual stagnation in 2026, with growth of just 0.1%. This analysis places Cuba among the worst countries on the continent in terms of economic performance and inflation stability, surpassed only by Haiti.
What does the report say about inflation in Cuba?
The report classifies Cuba as one of the countries with "chronic inflation," highlighting that the island has the third highest inflation in the continent for 2024. Due to the severity of its inflationary crisis, Cuba was excluded from the calculation of regional and subregional averages, which underscores the magnitude of the economic problem facing the country.
How does population aging affect the Cuban economy?
Cuba is the most ageing country in Latin America and the Caribbean, with over a quarter of its population being over 60 years old. This aging creates additional pressures on the economy, affecting the demographic dependency ratio and reducing the active workforce, which in turn complicates the country's economic recovery.
Why is housing construction a critical issue in Cuba?
The construction of housing in Cuba has dropped to levels lower than those during the Special Period, reflecting the State's inability to meet the basic needs of the population. In 2024, fewer homes were built than in the worst years of the crisis in the 1990s, worsening the housing and social crisis on the island.
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