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The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has raised its projection for regional economic growth in 2025 to 2.2%, with Argentina leading with an expansion of 5%, followed by Panama (4.2%) and Paraguay (4%).
According to the report, the countries projected to have the highest growth this year are Argentina (5%); Panama (4.2%); Paraguay (4%); the Dominican Republic (3.7%); Guatemala (3.6%) and Costa Rica (3.5%).
At the other end, Mexico would only achieve a growth rate of 0.3%, positioning it as the most lagging economy among countries with positive growth.
CEPAL attributes this situation to its high dependence on exports to the United States (over 80%), in a context of trade tensions and increasingly strict rules of origin under the USMCA.
For several months now, Argentina's economy has shown signs of sustained growth, reaching 5.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, as reported by the Ministry of Economy and the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC).
In addition, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the South American nation showed an expansion of 0.8% compared to the previous quarter.
The data confirms a strong economic recovery, driven by the adjustment and liberalization policies of President Javier Milei, who came to power with the promise of reducing public spending and removing market obstacles.
In contrast, Cuba ranks among the most lagging countries, with an estimated contraction of -1.5% this year and a virtual stagnation of 0.1% for 2026.
The only economies projected to contract in 2025, according to the organization, will be Haiti (-2.3%) and Cuba (-1.5%).
According to the report, the Cuban economy is experiencing one of its worst phases in decades. It has been classified by ECLAC as one of the five countries in Latin America with "chronic inflation," ranking third regionally in inflation levels in 2024.
This classification led to its exclusion from regional and subregional averages, highlighting the seriousness of its economic situation.
In addition to the decline in GDP, CEPAL warned about other critical factors that hinder the country's recovery: limited access to external financing, a collapse in foreign investment, persistent structural distortions, and an increasing informality that disrupts any official planning.
This is compounded by a combination of uncontrolled debt and a sustained loss of purchasing power, which keeps the population in a state of widespread precariousness.
Frequently Asked Questions about Economic Growth in Latin America and the Crisis in Cuba
Why is Argentina leading economic growth in Latin America in 2025?
Argentina leads economic growth in Latin America in 2025 with a projection of 5% thanks to the adjustment and liberalization policies implemented by President Javier Milei. These policies have boosted private investment, improved macroeconomic indicators, and drastically reduced inflation, which has strengthened consumption and economic confidence in the country.
What is the current economic situation in Cuba according to CEPAL?
The Cuban economy is going through one of its worst phases in decades, with a projected GDP contraction of -1.5% for 2025 and chronic inflation. CEPAL classifies Cuba among the countries with the worst economic performance in the region, highlighting its low foreign investment, structural distortions, and an expanding informal market that hinders sustainable recovery.
What factors are driving economic growth in Argentina?
The economic growth in Argentina is driven by structural reforms that include deregulation and reductions in public spending. These measures have resulted in a fiscal surplus, an increase in investments in strategic sectors, and a significant drop in inflation, which has stimulated internal consumption and economic confidence.
What are the main economic challenges facing Cuba in 2025?
Cuba is facing a series of serious economic challenges, including a contraction in GDP, low foreign investment, and an expanding informal market. The lack of access to external financing, structural distortions, and chronic inflation are other factors that exacerbate the economic crisis on the island, keeping the population in a state of precariousness.
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