The prominent Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera urged people to stay very alert in the coming days regarding the evolution of two tropical systems in the Atlantic with a high potential for cyclonic development.
In a video posted this Tuesday on his YouTube channel, Rubiera urged viewers to pay more attention to the system currently closer to Africa, which he believes shows signs of potentially organizing better in the coming days.
Two systems under observation: 99L and a wave in the center of the Atlantic
After mentioning Erin, which poses no threat to Cuba, although the east coast of the U.S. could experience strong swells, Rubiera specified that there are currently two areas of cyclonic interest in the Atlantic:
"We have two important systems in the Atlantic. One is in the central Atlantic, further south in latitude, and there is another one that is farther away, crossing south of the Cape Verde islands... that system is already under investigation: 99L," said the meteorologist.
The system 99L, located southwest of the Cape Verde islands, has been classified as an "investigation area," which means it is being monitored more closely by meteorological agencies.
Although it does not yet have a defined circulation, it shows an active area of rain and thunderstorms, indicating that it could become more organized in the coming days.
“When it is a research system, much more attention is paid to it”, Rubiera pointed out.
"There are areas of strong storms embedded in that region that still do not have circulation because it is a tropical wave. This is the one that could have more long-term development," he added.
The other tropical wave, located more toward the center of the Atlantic, currently shows less organization, but it is still under observation. According to Rubiera, monitoring should be maintained, especially between the end of this week and the beginning of next week, a period during which significant changes could occur in both systems.
Favorable conditions for cyclonic development
The Cuban specialist warned that the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive to the development of cyclones
“Given the time of year and the warm sea, we must closely observe the next few days,” he emphasized.
Among the factors that increase the likelihood of cyclone formation are: warmer than usual sea temperatures; a significant absence of Saharan dust; and a low presence of dry air in the atmosphere.
“The population should stay alert, especially in the Caribbean, because the systems that move through low latitudes tend to have trajectories with a greater impact in our area”, emphasized Rubiera.
This is a crucial aspect, as cyclones that develop in low latitudes tend to move westward, a path that can lead them to directly impact the Lesser Antilles, the Caribbean, and eventually Central America or the Gulf of Mexico.
Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center
For its part, the National Hurricane Center of the United States (NHC) issued a bulletin this Wednesday detailing the probabilities of development for both systems in the coming days:
1. Near the Windward Islands (tropical wave in the center of the Atlantic):
Probability of formation in 48 hours: low (10%).
Probability of formation in 7 days: medium (60%).
This tropical wave continues to bring disorganized rains and thunderstorms, but it could strengthen and develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week as it approaches the northern part of the Windward Islands.
2. AL99 - Southwest of Cape Verde:
Probability of formation in 48 hours: medium (40%).
Probability of formation in 7 days: medium (40%).
Although the conditions for its development are only marginally favorable, there is a possibility that it could become a short-lived tropical depression. However, by the end of the week, conditions might become unfavorable for further intensification.
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