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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported this Thursday that the tropics will remain calm over the weekend, with only one tropical wave expected to emerge from the west coast of Africa next Sunday.
According to the report issued at 2:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on August 28, the system has a low probability of tropical development, estimated at 20% over the next seven days, as it moves west or west-northwest at a speed of 15 to 20 miles per hour across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
In its most recent update in Spanish, published at 2:00 a.m. on Friday the 29th, the NHC reiterated that environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system over the next week. However, the likelihood of cyclonic formation in the next 48 hours remains virtually null.
The organization, based in Miami, emphasized that, for the moment, no significant activity is expected in the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico.
This relative calm occurs during the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30 and typically intensifies from August to October.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Relative Calm in the Atlantic and the 2025 Hurricane Season
What is the likelihood of cyclonic development for the current tropical wave in the Atlantic?
The probability of cyclonic development is low, estimated at 20% over the next seven days. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the current environmental conditions may allow for a slow development of the system during the coming week, but the likelihood of cyclonic formation in the next 48 hours remains nonexistent.
Why is it believed that the 2025 hurricane season could be more active than usual?
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be more active due to ocean temperatures in the Atlantic being well above average. This warming favors the formation of cyclones, and the likely absence of the El Niño phenomenon removes a factor that usually weakens these systems. Between 13 and 19 named storms are anticipated, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes.
What is the hurricane season in the Atlantic and when does it occur?
The hurricane season in the Atlantic runs from June 1 to November 30. During this period, weather conditions are favorable for the development of tropical cyclones, particularly between August and October, when activity tends to be at its peak.
What measures should coastal communities take during the hurricane season?
Coastal communities must stay informed and prepared for possible cyclonic developments. It is advisable to follow official bulletins and instructions from local authorities, as a single cyclone can cause significant damage, even if the overall season is calm.
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