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An active tropical wave moving through the central tropical Atlantic has a high likelihood of developing into a tropical cyclone in the coming days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States.
The phenomenon, identified as AL90, is located about 160 kilometers east-northeast of the Windward Islands and is displaying increasing signs of organization.
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the area are favorable for its development, which could lead to the formation of a depression or tropical storm over the weekend, as it moves northwest and then north, between the Leeward Islands and Bermuda.
The NHC has indicated an 80% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, and a 90% chance of development over the next seven days, making this system the most closely monitored currently in the Atlantic basin.
Although the system does not pose an immediate threat to the southern Caribbean, experts do not rule out the possibility of a change in its trajectory in the coming days, so it is recommended to stay alert for official updates.
Additionally, the NHC is monitoring another tropical wave, located halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (AL99), which has lost some organization but could reactivate under more favorable conditions early next week.
This system has a moderate chance of development: 40% in 48 hours and 50% in seven days.
Finally, a small area of low pressure southwest of the Azores has weakened and no longer shows conditions for development.
This week, the powerful hurricane Erin did not make landfall in the United States, but it did cause dangerous surf and rip currents along the entire East Coast, from Miami to Massachusetts. Authorities advised beachgoers to follow strict guidelines to avoid risks.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Tropical Disturbance in the Atlantic
What is the probability of tropical disturbance AL90 becoming a cyclone?
The tropical disturbance AL90 has an 80% chance of becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of development over the next seven days. This system is currently the most closely monitored in the Atlantic basin due to favorable conditions for its development.
Could this system affect the southern Caribbean?
Although the system does not pose an immediate danger to the southern Caribbean, experts do not rule out the possibility that its trajectory may change in the coming days. It is important to stay alert for official updates to be aware of any changes in its behavior.
What other systems are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center?
In addition to the AL90 system, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the tropical wave AL99, located halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Although it has lost some organization, it could reactivate under more favorable conditions early next week, with a 40% chance of development in 48 hours and a 50% chance in seven days.
How is the 2025 hurricane season expected to evolve in the Atlantic?
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be more active than usual. 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes are anticipated. This is due to ocean temperatures being above average and the likely absence of the El Niño phenomenon, which typically helps to weaken cyclones.
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