Melissa could develop into a powerful hurricane south of Cuba

Tropical storm Melissa continues to reorganize over the warm waters of the central Caribbean and could reach a higher category (three or above) during the weekend as it moves toward the area south of Cuba.

According to the latest report from the National Hurricane Center, the trajectory scenarios have become more dangerous for the Island, with a turn that would lead the system to move further into the Caribbean after passing south of Jamaica, the report warned.

The notice indicates that, although Melissa is still observed to be disorganized, a gradual strengthening is expected and that the system may reach hurricane status by Friday; rapid intensification could turn it into a major hurricane by Sunday.

The update on the trajectory moves the center further south of Jamaica, increasing the risk for Cuba in the coming days.

Reconnaissance planes from the Air Force Reserve located the center of Melissa near 14.3°N, 74.0°W, moving very slowly to the west at 2 mph (4 km/h).

The maximum sustained winds are around 50 mph (85 km/h), with higher gusts, and the estimated minimum pressure is 1,000 mb. The winds with tropical storm force extend up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The short-term forecast anticipates a slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north over the next two days, followed by a return to the west during the weekend.

On this path, Melissa would approach Jamaica and the southwest of Haiti by the end of the week, before moving over the western Caribbean with greater organization and intensity.

The system is already associated with heavy rains with potential for flooding and landslides in parts of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and Jamaica for the rest of the week.

With the southernmost projection and a favorable oceanic environment, the trajectory forecasts "are now more dangerous for Cuba," especially for areas in the west and center-south if the wind field and rain bands expand as the weekend approaches.

Although it is not yet a hurricane, the combination of very warm waters, slow movement, and better organization promotes sustained strengthening.

The route update —more internal in the Caribbean and south of Jamaica— increases Cuba's exposure in the short/medium term, thus it is recommended to monitor official reports and assess preparedness measures in areas vulnerable to heavy rains, winds, and storm surges.

The Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) of Cuba issued its Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 3 on the morning of Wednesday, October 22, warning that, despite the slow movement of Tropical Storm Melissa over the central Caribbean Sea, the system poses a “potential danger” to the island, making it essential to maintain close monitoring of its development.