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The decline of the dollar in the informal Cuban market this Sunday, following a whole week of increases, comes just one day after the regime announced that it “creates the conditions” to establish “an orderly, transparent, and functional official exchange market”.
The timing has raised the inevitable question: Did that announcement influence the quotes reflected by the independent media El Toque, or is it just a normal adjustment in the informal market?
A slight decline in a context of political tension
The dollar dropped from 470 to 460 Cuban pesos (CUP) this Sunday, while the euro remained at 500 CUP and the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) rose to 220 CUP.
It is a slight adjustment, but symbolically significant after seven consecutive days of increases that had solidified the rise of the greenback.
The movement aligns with the new official discourse of the Central Bank of Cuba (BCC), which seeks to reinstate the narrative of state control over the exchange rate, just as the informal market—measured by El Toque—has become the main real reference for the Cuban economy.
Market reaction or manipulation of expectations?
Some economists consulted by CiberCuba believe that the announcement from the BCC may have created a slight psychological effect among informal operators, resulting in a temporary pause in the rise of the dollar.
However, they warn that without liquidity in foreign currency and without public confidence, no official market can sustain itself beyond paper.
“The regime tries to project authority, but the informal market doesn’t respond to speeches; it reacts to real supply and demand,” commented an economist to this editorial office.
Other analysts point out that the coincidence is more political than economic, and that Sunday’s decline reflects a natural correction following a week of upward speculation.
The Touch, target of the regime
The announcement of the so-called official market comes amid a coordinated offensive by the regime against El Toque, accused of “manipulating” the informal exchange rate and “attacking the financial sovereignty” of the country.
Paradoxically, its Informal Market Representative Rate (TRMi) is the only reliable reference for millions of Cubans and private businesses both on and off the island.
The official discourse does not halt reality
For now, the decline of the dollar seems more like a pause than a shift in trend.
Without real measures, without foreign currency, and with public trust at an all-time low, the regime's announcement is unlikely to have a sustained impact on the behavior of the informal market.
In practice, Cubans will continue to turn to social media, messaging groups, and the figures from El Toque to find out the real value of their money.
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