Dollar and euro rise in Cuba as the informal market responds to the tension following Maduro's capture



The capture of Maduro has caused the dollar and euro to surge in the Cuban informal market. Geopolitical uncertainty weakens the peso, while Cubans seek refuge in more stable currencies.

Reference image created with Artificial IntelligencePhoto © CiberCuba / Sora

The United States dollar (USD) and the euro (EUR) rebounded this Monday in the informal Cuban market, on a day marked by regional tension and economic anxiety following the capture of Venezuelan ruler Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces in Caracas.

According to the independent observatory elTOQUE, the dollar is trading today at 445 Cuban pesos (CUP), five more than on Sunday, while the euro rises to 485 CUP, marking an equal increase.

Informal exchange rate in Cuba Monday, January 5, 2026 - 07:06

  • Exchange rate of the dollar (USD) to Cuban pesos CUP: 445 CUP
  • Exchange rate of the euro (EUR) to Cuban pesos CUP: 485 CUP
  • Exchange rate from (MLC) to Cuban pesos CUP: 400 CUP

The Free Convertible Currency (MLC) exhibited identical behavior, reaching 400 CUP this Monday, after jumping five points compared to the previous day. The three currencies show an upward trend that reflects the degradation of trust in the Cuban peso (CUP).

Exchange Rate Evolution

    The graphs confirm the rise of the dollar and the euro

    The monthly evolution data of the exchange rate shows that both the dollar and the euro were in a period of relative stability during the second half of December, but starting from January 2, they began to rise sharply, coinciding with the political events in Venezuela.

    In the case of the dollar, the graph shows a steady decline from 450 CUP in mid-December to a low of 435 CUP by the end of the month, only to reverse the trend and quickly recover to the current 445 CUP, its highest point in three weeks.

    The euro followed a similar trajectory: it remained stable around 480 CUP for most of December, with a slight decline before the holidays, and starting January 3, it began to recover, reaching 485 CUP this Monday, its highest value since the beginning of the month.

    The MLC, for its part, exhibits a different behavior: after a rapid increase at the end of December, when it rose from 280 to over 400 CUP in just ten days, it has remained relatively stable, suggesting an adjustment process following its historical peak.

    Together, the charts created by CiberCuba using data from elTOQUE reveal a reversal of the downward trend of foreign currencies in the informal market and the beginning of a new cycle of appreciation against the CUP, parallel to the intensification of the regional political context.

    The impact of the Venezuelan crisis on Cuban perception

    The capture of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, transferred to New York to face drug trafficking charges, has shaken Latin American politics and had an immediate effect on the Cuban economy.

    The close alliance between Havana and Caracas—based on the exchange of oil for medical services and security—is at risk, and Cubans perceive this as a direct threat to their already deteriorating internal stability.

    “Every time a link in external support breaks, the Cuban peso loses value,” commented an economic analyst from Havana. “Geopolitical uncertainty causes the population to seek refuge in the dollar and the euro, and this increases the pressure on informal rates.”

    A peso weakened by politics and distrust

    With the dollar at 445 CUP and the euro at 485 CUP, the Cuban peso enters a new cycle of depreciation. The so-called official floating rate of the Central Bank fails to stabilize the market, as prices rise and access to formal currencies remains restricted.

    The Venezuelan episode has acted as a trigger, but the underlying issue remains the same: an economy lacking liquidity, transparency, and trust.

    On the streets, Cubans summarize it in a phrase that is repeated on social media: "When there’s a tremor in Caracas, the peso crashes in Havana."

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    CiberCuba Editorial Team

    A team of journalists committed to reporting on Cuban current affairs and topics of global interest. At CiberCuba, we work to deliver truthful news and critical analysis.