At dawn on this Thursday, January 15, the informal currency market in Cuba shows a
At 7:00 a.m. (local time), the U.S. dollar is trading at an average of 475 CUP, which indicates an increase of five units compared to the previous value.
In the case of the euro, the European currency rises for the third consecutive day and today reaches 515 CUP, five pesos more than its value yesterday, according to the rate published this Thursday by the independent media elTOQUE.
Regarding the evolution of the value of the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), it has remained stable at 400 CUP since last Friday, which means almost a week ago.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The dollar and the euro have been on an upward trend since the beginning of this year, a period that coincides with the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela on January 3, an event that has generated political tension and economic instability throughout the region, with particular attention in Cuba.
Exchange rate today 01/15/2026 - 7:21 a.m. in Cuba:
Dollar exchange rate USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 475 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 515 CUP.
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 400 CUP.
Stability of currencies in December and a bullish start in January
The current trend of rising currencies in the informal market contrasts with the relative stability demonstrated by the dollar and the euro in December 2025, despite the entry into force on the 18th of the new official exchange rate with managed floating (Segment III).
According to warned recently by the Observatory of Currencies and Finance of Cuba (OMFi), this measure did not have immediate effects or drastic changes, which suggests that the informal market had already integrated the expectations generated by the official announcements.
Projections for January 2026
According to the OMFi models, the projections for January anticipated an upward bias:
Dollar: central projection of 465 CUP (range between 454 and 480 CUP).
Euro: projection of 505 CUP (range between 479 and 515 CUP).
MLC: estimated at around 427 CUP (ranging between 398 and 440 CUP).
With the current values of -475 CUP for the dollar and 515 CUP for the euro, both currencies are at the upper limit of what was anticipated, reinforcing the perception of a market under pressure due to regional uncertainty and a lack of trust in the Cuban peso.
Factors that pressure the market
Among the factors that explain the upward trend are:
The capture of Nicolás Maduro, which creates a new scenario of instability in Venezuela, a key partner of Cuba.
-A limited offer of foreign currency, which diminished at the end of December and has not fully recovered.
-The weakening of trust in Cuban institutions, especially following the freezing of foreign currencies in national banks.
The use of MLC as a monetary policy tool, with the Central Bank buying MLC at rates similar to the dollar, despite its low real demand.
The Freely Convertible Currency: A Bubble?
During December, the MLC was the currency that appreciated the most in the informal market, with a jump of 40.3%, even surpassing the increase of the previous month (39%).
This appreciation has been interpreted by analysts as the result of a deliberate intervention by the Central Bank, which would be creating an "artificial premium" for that currency.
Even so, the MLC remains unattractive to users, as its utility is restricted to a small group of establishments and its acceptance as a payment method is low.
The OMFi warns that this type of manipulation could be fueling inflation, as the BCC would be issuing more pesos to purchase MLC than it can support with real operations.
Officialdom vs. elTOQUE: A “plagiarized” rate
A paradox highlighted by analysts is that the official rate implemented at the end of December bears a strong resemblance to the one that elTOQUE had been publishing for months, a source that faced severe attacks from the government, accused of spreading misinformation or inciting panic.
The decision to officialize a rate that is almost identical has sparked criticism and raised questions about the legitimacy of the state's economic policy.
Medium-term risks
The OMFi emphasizes that the current situation presents increasing risks:
-Inflation fueled by unbacked monetary emission.
-Low capacity of the country to generate real foreign currency.
-Decline in tourism (with a nearly 20% drop in 2025).
- Institutional fragility and lack of investor confidence.
All of this takes place in a regional context where geopolitical tensions are anticipated, along with possible changes in the Cuba-Venezuela trade dynamics, which have so far largely been sustained by the "services for oil" arrangement.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates as of January 15:
1 USD = 475 CUP.
5 USD = 2,375 CUP.
10 USD = 4,750 CUP.
20 USD = 9,500 CUP.
50 USD = 23,750 CUP.
100 USD = 47,500 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro banknotes (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 515 CUP.
5 EUR = 2.575 CUP.
10 EUR = 5,150 CUP.
20 EUR = 10,300 CUP.
50 EUR = 25,750 CUP.
100 EUR = 51,500 CUP.
200 EUR = 103,000 CUP.
Filed under: