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The government of Mexico is reviewing whether it will continue sending oil and fuels to Cuba due to the fear that this policy may provoke reprisals from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.
According to three sources familiar with the discussions consulted by Reuters, the review —which had not been previously reported— comes at a time when Mexican shipments have become a lifeline for the island, following the disruption of Venezuelan supplies due to recent actions and events in Venezuela.
Although President Claudia Sheinbaum has publicly stated that Mexico will continue its shipments—arguing that they are based on long-term contracts and are considered international aid—high-level sources indicated that the policy is under internal review due to growing concerns within the cabinet about the political and commercial costs of irritating Washington.
Reuters points out that there are three scenarios on the table: total suspension, reduction, or full continuity.
According to the outlet, the trigger is the tightening of pressure from Washington.
Trump has insisted that Cuba is "ready to fall" and posted on January 11 on Truth Social: "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY FOR CUBA! ZERO!"
Meanwhile, the blockade of oil tankers in Venezuela in December and the capture of Nicolás Maduro this month would have halted Venezuelan shipments to Cuba, leaving Mexico as the main supplier amidst energy shortages and widespread blackouts on the island, according to the text.
The review also occurs as Mexico seeks to open a renegotiation of the T-MEC while simultaneously trying to convince the U.S. that it is doing enough against the cartels, in an atmosphere where Trump has intensified rhetoric about possible U.S. action and Sheinbaum has reiterated that any unilateral operation on Mexican territory would be a serious violation of sovereignty.
Two of the sources cited by Reuters said that Trump questioned Sheinbaum during a phone call the week before about the shipments of crude oil and fuel to Cuba and the presence of thousands of Cuban doctors in Mexico.
According to those sources, Sheinbaum responded that oil is "humanitarian aid" and that the agreement with the doctors complies with Mexican legislation; they added that Trump did not directly ask Mexico to suspend oil.
The Mexican Presidency, in response to Reuters, stated that Mexico “has always been supportive of the people of Cuba” and defended that the shipment of oil and the agreement for doctors are “sovereign decisions.”
Cuba did not respond to a request for comments, the report adds.
Sources also stated that concern is growing within the Mexican government regarding an increased presence of U.S. Navy drones over the Gulf of Mexico since December.
Reuters reports on local media coverage based on flight tracking, indicating that Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton drones have conducted flights over the Bay of Campeche, roughly following the route of Mexican fuel tankers heading towards Cuba.
The text adds that similar reconnaissance planes were sighted off the coast of Venezuela in December, days before the American attack there, according to the report itself.
Cuba heavily relies on imports of refined fuel for electricity generation, gasoline, and aviation fuel.
In that context, Pemex reported that between January and September of last year, Mexico sent to Cuba 17,200 barrels per day of crude and 2,000 barrels per day of refined products, with an approximate value of 400 million dollars, according to information presented by Pemex to the U.S. SEC, according to Reuters.
Within Sheinbaum's government, there are officials who fear that the strategy of cutting off oil to Cuba could drive the country into a humanitarian disaster with the potential to cause massive migration towards Mexico, which is why some advocate for maintaining at least part of the supply.
The final decision has not yet been made. For now, what is confirmed is that Mexico is evaluating changes in its energy shipment policy to Cuba and weighing geopolitical, humanitarian, and commercial costs, with the relationship with the Trump administration as a central factor, according to Reuters.
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