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The recent threat from the United Kingdom to seize oil tankers from the so-called "ghost fleet" linked to Russia introduces a new risk factor in an already extremely fragile scenario for Cuba's energy supply.
Although the British decision does not directly target Havana, its collateral effects could further complicate the arrival of Russian crude to the island, which currently relies on sporadic, irregular, and increasingly monitored shipments.
London has made it clear that it is evaluating military and legal options to seize Russian vessels operating under false or fraudulent flags, a practice used by Moscow to evade Western sanctions and sustain its oil exports, according to The Guardian.
This hardening of the tone coincides with a delicate moment for Russia, whose oil revenues have significantly declined, and for Cuba, which is experiencing one of the worst energy crises in recent decades.
In recent days, the Russian government publicly reiterated that it will continue shipments of oil to Cuba, despite warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding possible sanctions against countries that supply crude oil to the island.
However, beyond the political discourse, the main obstacle is not Moscow's willingness, but the logistics required to transport the oil without exposing it to seizures, blockades, or prohibitive costs.
Cuba does not receive Russian oil through regular trade routes or with secured shipping companies. Shipments are carried out using old tankers, opaque operations, flag changes, and irregular routes, a scheme that fits the profile of the ghost fleet now under the scrutiny of the United Kingdom and its European allies.
The British threat increases the risk for shipowners, insurers, and intermediaries, even if there is no immediate seizure. The mere increase in surveillance and the possibility of a ship being deemed "stateless" under maritime law serve as a powerful deterrent.
In practice, each trip to politically sensitive destinations, such as Cuba, becomes more expensive, slower, and less appealing.
Moreover, Cuba holds a marginal position within Russia's energy priorities. Compared to key markets like China or India, which absorb the majority of Russian crude transported by sea, the island represents small volumes and high risks, lacking payment capacity under normal conditions.
In a context of increasing pressure, Moscow might choose to prioritize safer routes and clients, relegating Cuba to a secondary role.
The likely outcome would not be an abrupt cut in supply, but rather a reduction in the frequency and predictability of shipments.
For an island that already relies on timely shipments to avoid massive blackouts and collapses in transportation, any additional disruption in the supply chain exacerbates a crisis that has shifted from being temporary to structural.
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