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The Cuban diaspora is not a secondary player in any potential political change in the island. According to political scientist Carlos M. Rodríguez Arechavaleta, it is an essential piece.
In a country marked by economic collapse, institutional fracture, and a lack of freedoms, the role of Cubans abroad can be crucial not only in financial terms but also politically and socially.
In an interview granted to El País, the doctor in Political Science and professor at the Ibero-American University of Mexico was unequivocal: “Without the Cuban diaspora, a political transition in Cuba would not be possible.”
His statement is not rhetorical; it stems from a clear diagnosis of the magnitude of internal deterioration and the lack of structural conditions for sustained change without external support.
Arechavaleta believes that, given "the magnitude of the internal disaster," the human, technological, financial, and cultural capital of emigrated Cubans is essential.
It's not just about economic investment, but also about the capacity for institutional reconstruction, knowledge transfer, and the articulation of national projects. In a scenario where the State has lost efficacy and credibility, the diaspora can become a driving force for modernization and openness.
The academic warns that, although the political interests and preferences within the exile community are not homogeneous, there are no “economic development options for the island without a strong investment in infrastructure, technology, and trade openness.”
"Before considering foreign capitals, he emphasizes, 'we should prioritize the investment of capital from Cuban origins without pejorative stigmas.' His argument dismantles the regime's usual attempts to portray the exile as an adversary."
In a context of possible transition —whether gradual or negotiated— excluding millions of Cubans for ideological reasons would prolong stagnation. Integrating them, on the other hand, could facilitate economic reforms that, over time, might create room for greater demands for political liberalization.
The diaspora does not replace internal action nor does it solve the structural crisis of the system on its own, but to ignore it at this point would be to overlook a reality. Cubans abroad hold most of the capital necessary to rebuild Cuba.
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