The failure of the contingency plan measures

Cuban Vice Prime Minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga announced a few days ago the appearance of ministers to explain the measures of the contingency plan to address the "zero option."

Now the Cuban communists, always creative with political terminology, instead of calling it a "contingency plan," refer to it as a "multisectoral strategy to ensure the protection of the people and the continuity of social services." In this way, they justify a new shift in economic policy aimed at addressing the humanitarian crisis, which, it should not be forgotten, has been aggravated by the leaders themselves with disastrous "experiments," like those presented in this article.

Because with the "zero option" looming close, this is not the time to make mistakes, much less to prolong the suffering of the population by implementing measures that are disconnected from reality. However, this principle does not seem to be clear to the Castro leadership, who make it their daily pursuit to compete with one another to see who can announce the most irresponsible and inappropriate actions to address the impending humanitarian crisis. Actions that could lead to the implosion of the Cuban economy, turning it into the failed state that we all fear, and that no one desires under the current circumstances.

Now the leaders have announced a strategy that they claim prioritizes "the protection of the population, budget control, and resilience through digital payments and renewable energies." Is that what is needed right now? Clearly, it is not.

And the effects are already noticeable. Such as the long lines forming at bank offices as Cubans try to withdraw their meager savings from bank accounts to cope with the upcoming payments that, due to inflation, will be very high.

To avoid this behavior, which can be described as rational, the regime has resorted to putting the leaders of the Ministry of Finance and Prices, the Central Bank of Cuba, and the Ministry of Communications to work in an effort to limit and control these cash withdrawals, thinking that it is likely that the banks will not be able to fulfill these requests in their entirety. Everything suggests that if this happens, it could add to the suffering of the Cuban people, resulting in a banking crisis of significant proportions that would ultimately undermine the little trust that exists in the economy.

The three leaders mentioned attempted to justify in the program "Mesa Redonda" the measures aimed at "protecting essential services for the population, ensuring economic stability, and promoting productive recovery." Each of them proceeded to outline the controversial measures they intend to implement to address the current crisis.

The first was the Minister of Finance and Prices, Vladimir Regueiro Ale, who defended the state budget as a "tool for managing the economy" and stated that it "maintains its humanistic role," serving as a guarantee to protect essential social services for the population. He highlighted what is already well known: that 66% of budgetary spending is concentrated in the social sector.

Despite this "triumphalist" statement, the minister insists on the need for a "collective effort to make a more rational and efficient use of the budget," which, translated into everyday language, means there is no money, and in light of this situation, there will be "a reorganization of the spending allocations."

Whenever the terms "ordering or reordering" prevail in the Castro regime's barren landscape, Cubans tremble. Even worse is when it is claimed that this will be done "in total reconciliation with the governing bodies," because there will be no agreement of any kind, and priorities will be overlooked amid unproductive discussions.

Without money in the budget to address needs, the minister expressed his concern about productivity levels, which likewise hinder the necessary collection of income for the budget. Thus, the easy but controversial decision has been to increase the tax burden on the population by closely monitoring in extremis the payment of taxes, warning in a threatening tone that “the administrative levers (...) will be more stringent to ensure compliance with duty.” Just at a time when it would be necessary to ease the tax pressure, the castrismo is intensifying the work of the tax authority. Inexplicable.

Under such conditions, it is highly likely that the tax benefits and incentives announced to support productive sectors will not change a scenario in which the lack of energy will dictate the entire production of various sectors. Just as it is pure demagoguery to announce “the commitment to pay pensions, amounting to 20 billion pesos,” a figure that falls short of actual needs and will not be of much help to retirees who are barely getting by on average pensions of 5 dollars a month.

We warn that all these measures will be a predictable failure, because the communists have yet to realize that for any action to be effective, it is necessary to decisively confront the double-digit inflation that has been ravaging the Cuban economy since the implementation of the ordering task.

The significant impoverishment of Cubans since then is not only due to very low nominal wages and pensions, but also to the decline in real values caused by the cumulative effect of inflation. If prices do not stabilize, all actions proposed for the "zero option" will be disastrous for the population. The Castro leaders have been aware for more than five years that prices are out of control, yet they have done nothing to ensure stability.

The second to speak was Juana Lidia Delgado Portal, president of the Central Bank of Cuba, who had her "moment of glory" on the "Mesa Redonda," announcing a set of measures aimed at "increasing energy self-sufficiency, adjusting some service hours, and promoting digital payment channels on a large scale."

Yes, dear reader. The Central Bank of Cuba, responsible for monetary control and stability in the country, is implementing energy self-sufficiency measures, which include investments to introduce renewable energy sources in bank branches, such as photovoltaic systems, enhancing their operational capabilities. It’s pretty much the same spiel as Pérez-Oliva Fraga during the press conference two days ago.

Of course, since not all offices will have electricity from renewable sources, in places where there are blackouts, people will end up at home, with service hours adjusted that will exacerbate the impact of the long lines already observed at banking institutions. Faced with such a bleak scenario, Mrs. Delgado can think of nothing but to promote the use of digital channels, especially in businesses and among the population, with applications like Ticket and Mi Turno, which also don’t work during blackouts. For this reason, and to avoid panic-induced queues, she urged people to use remote banking to optimize space in branches and prioritize services for the public.

And with things being as they are, the president of the Central Bank deflected attention and emphasized the support of the banking sector for education, where about 2,000 workers have received assistance for the acquisition of photovoltaic systems, supporting the generation of alternative energy sources. She did not explain why some received help while others did not. She also referred to the guarantee of continuity in the currency market through CADECA and bank branches, stating that international payments directed at essential activities, such as the importation of fuels, medicines, food, and raw materials for national production that substitute imports or generate exports, are prioritized. It is not surprising that the program “Mesa Redonda” is becoming less interesting to Cubans.

Finally, the Minister of Communications, Mayra Arevich Marín, was the last to intervene to explain the strategy for maintaining services in a complex scenario, and her proposal is none other than to prioritize digital transformation and energy efficiency.

Nothing could be further from reality, given the serious situation looming ahead, than to focus on advancing the implementation of the digital transformation policy and to staunchly uphold that document circulating in the regime's offices, titled “Digital Agenda,” which refers to the artificial intelligence strategy and the strengthening of technological infrastructure. Just when hunger is beginning to take hold and create problems for the population, the Castro communication system will be dedicated to developing artificial intelligence. Undoubtedly, very timely.

An utter absurdity that demonstrates how the statements made by the Minister of Finance and Prices during the "Mesa Redonda" do not hold up, as each department, in this case Communications, will do as they please with their budgets, even if it isn’t a priority to alleviate the fuel shortage and economic hardship. The battle for dwindling funds is on.

The minister also spoke about a battery replacement and a strategic project for radio and television based on solar energy, in collaboration with Etecsa and Correos de Cuba. These actions are coordinated with the Electric Union, the electronics industry, and through imports of photovoltaic systems. Once again, the minister seems to overlook that Cuba is facing a serious economic crisis and that the priority is to minimize the suffering of the population.

Instead, it announced the maintenance of all assistance channels (landline/mobile phone, interruption reporting, commercial information), the intensive use of sovereign digital platforms such as Transfermóvil and EnZona, Etecsa's online store for efficiently managing services; as well as the use of other national platforms like ToDus, a “secure messaging and communication platform”; Picta, an audiovisual and educational content channel, “useful even during electrical outages”; Apklis, a “key repository of Cuban software solutions”; and the Sovereignty Portal, a digital government platform for digital identity, procedures, and government information. Hopefully, all of this would help provide at least one meal a day.

On the other hand, he stated that Correos de Cuba will maintain all services (universal postal, press, package delivery), but with provincial adjustments that suggest the provision of services by this corporation, particularly regarding the necessary packages from abroad, will be affected more than ever.

In this scenario of unrealistic expectations, a tasteless joke, the announcement that "the Joven Club will continue to reach out to the neighborhoods, bringing activities to seniors' homes, children's homes, and community spaces" is nothing short of an absurdity.

The crisis will not be stopped by this type of measures. The situation of the Cuban economy could spiral out of control in a few months, and then it will be too late to embrace the only solution left for the regime. Blaming others for the impending disaster no longer holds any justification. Beneath these measures of the “contingency plan” or the “multisectoral strategy” lie the foundations of a disaster that is increasingly imminent.