Poor inflation data in January

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January has already been published by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) of Cuba. The year couldn't have started off worse in terms of prices.

The year-on-year variation rate of the consumer price index, compared to the same month of the previous year, has been 12.52%, confirming that inflationary pressures are not easing and continue to impact the Cuban economy, with the authorities unable to exercise any control using monetary and fiscal policy instruments.

In other words, if immediate action is not taken, the annual inflation could once again show a very negative performance by the end of 2026, affecting the real value of the salaries and pensions of Cubans.

It remains an interesting fact that the classification showing the highest growth in January 2026, significantly surpassing the others, is Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, with an impressive year-over-year increase of 36.16%, nearly three times higher than the average.

There are also four categories of price classification with an annual inflation rate higher than the average that have a significant impact on the living conditions of the population and, therefore, should be taken into account.

First and foremost, the services in restaurants and hotels stand out, registering a 21.14% increase in the year-on-year rate.

In second place, Education, one of the "achievements of the revolution," notes that prices have increased by 18.5%, placing it among the top rankings.

In third place, housing services, with an increase of 14.85%, are also above the average, making it more difficult for Cubans to access this right, which will not facilitate the draft law they have announced.

Fourthly, in this group of concepts with a high impact on inflation due to recording rates above the average, we find Food, which has increased by 12.5%, nearly matching the average inflation rate. This again highlights the difficulty for Cubans to access daily food consumption. The prices of food have risen by 883.78% since 2010.

The concepts with the smallest price increases in January are Recreation and Culture, at 6.06%, and Transportation (5.34%), which – for now – does not appear to be affected by the reduction in fuel prices in February.

The year has just begun, and the rising prices in the Castro economy do not bode well, especially considering that the collapse of productive activity due to the lack of oil should have some impact on a more moderate price behavior.

However, that has not been the case, and the spectacular increase in prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and to a lesser extent, dining and bar services, suggests the existence of underlying inflation resulting from monetary mismanagement, which remains resistant to decreasing and disappearing.