The revelations published by Axios confirm what until now were cross statements and contradictory reports: The United States is maintaining discreet contacts with those closest to Raúl Castro.
At the same time, sources consulted by the US media openly acknowledged that the objective pursued by the Trump administration is a regime change in Cuba, although they indicated that it does not yet appear to be defined how to execute it.
According to the American media, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has held secret conversations with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson and trusted man of the historical leader of the Castro regime, in a move that deliberately bypasses the official channels of the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel.
The information is based on direct statements from a senior official of the administration of President Donald Trump, who was emphatic about Washington's stance:
Our position —the position of the United States government— is that the regime must go, said the official. “But what that will look like exactly... that depends on President Trump, and he has not decided yet. Rubio is still in talks with the grandson.”
The phrase marks a turning point. For the first time, an official source acknowledges unambiguously that the current U.S. policy towards Cuba aims at the departure of the totalitarian system that has been in power for more than 60 years.
However, it also makes clear that there is still no definitive roadmap, and that the final decision will rest with President Trump.
Conversations outside the official apparatus
Axios maintains that the contacts are not made with the ruling Miguel Díaz-Canel or with other high-profile officials of the Communist Party, considered by Washington to be apparatchiks without real capacity to negotiate structural changes.
Instead, Rubio would be engaging in dialogue with the inner circle of Raúl Castro, especially with his grandson, known as "Raulito" and nicknamed "El Cangrejo."
Sources cited by the outlet describe those conversations as "surprisingly amicable" and focused on the future, rather than on past recriminations.
The State Department did not deny the contacts, although it refrained from commenting on them publicly.
Contradictions with Havana
The revelations contrast with the recent statements made by the Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, who assured EFE that there is no high-level dialogue with Washington and that there have only been "exchanges of messages."
The official statement from the Cuban government itself emphasized that there is no negotiation table currently underway. However, Axios suggests that conversations do exist, but they are taking place outside of formal channels and directly with those whom the United States considers true centers of power on the island.
A model similar to the Venezuelan one
The regional context helps in understanding the strategy under study. Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, Washington promoted a phased process in Venezuela that included the temporary retention of figures from chavismo, such as Delcy Rodríguez, while advancing a supervised transition.
Sources cited by Axios claim that the team of Cuban-American Rubio "is looking for the next Delcy in Cuba," meaning a figure within the system capable of leading a change without causing an immediate institutional collapse.
However, the Cuban scenario presents greater complexities: a more deteriorated economy, a lack of strong institutional opposition, and a deeply centralized state structure.
Strategy in definition
The most significant aspect of the revelations is not just the existence of contacts, but the acknowledgment that the White House has still not defined the method to achieve a goal that has historically been demonized by Havana: a regime change.
According to sources, Trump is focused on other international fronts, such as Iran and Ukraine, while he instructs his Secretary of State to develop options. Meanwhile, he has increased energy and financial pressure on Havana, recently labeling Cuba as "a failed nation."
In this context, conversations with Raúl Castro's circle could be part of an exploratory strategy: to gauge internal divisions, identify viable interlocutors, and assess how far the core of Cuban power might be willing to concede.
What no longer seems to be in discussion is the stated objective of Washington: the regime, as it exists today, is unacceptable.
The unknown is how —and with what degree of disruption or continuity— that change would materialize.
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