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The historic relationship between Mexico and Cuba, which has remained strong since the triumph of the Revolution in 1959, is experiencing one of its most tense moments following the tightening of President Donald Trump's policy toward Havana.
The recent order from Washington to sanction countries that supply oil to the island puts Mexico in a particularly delicate position.
According to an analysis published by BBC, the United States has intensified its strategy to economically isolate the Cuban regime, including measures aimed at cutting off the flow of fuel.
Trump has stated that he is seeking a "deal" with Cuba, although he has not specified any conditions, while he pressures third countries to stop any energy support to the island.
Mexico, which in recent years has become one of the main crude oil suppliers for Cuba—especially after the decline of Venezuelan support—now faces the dilemma of maintaining its historical policy of solidarity without compromising its strategic relationship with Washington.
President Claudia Sheinbaum has criticized the U.S. restrictions, deeming them unfair due to their impact on the Cuban population. At the same time, she has halted new fuel shipments while diplomatic discussions are underway.
The bilateral relationship between Mexico and Cuba has deep roots. Mexico was the only Latin American country that did not sever diplomatic relations with
Havana in the 1960s, despite the pressures from the Organization of American States.
For decades, both governments maintained political, cultural, and economic exchanges, including energy agreements and technical cooperation.
According to the cited analysis, the historical relationship was also characterized by a tacit understanding: Mexico supported the principle of non-intervention and maintained relations with the Cuban regime, while Havana refrained from promoting revolutionary movements on Mexican territory.
This balance allowed Mexico to occasionally play the role of an indirect interlocutor between Cuba and the United States.
With the rise to power of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in 2018 and now with Sheinbaum, the relationship was strengthened through the sending of Cuban doctors, the purchase of vaccines and supplies during the pandemic, as well as favorable conditions for oil exports.
However, the current context is changing the rules of the game. The threat of sanctions and tariffs from the Trump administration is compelling Mexico to reassess its foreign policy.
Experts cited by BBC assert that Mexico is attempting to preserve its political capital accumulated over decades in its relationship with Cuba, while protecting its economic and commercial interests with the United States, its main partner.
The challenge lies in upholding its doctrine of self-determination and regional solidarity without getting caught in the confrontation between Washington and Havana.
At a time when Cuba is facing a deep economic and energy crisis, U.S. pressure is affecting not only the regime but also its allies.
Mexico, due to its regional weight and geographical proximity, thus becomes a key player in a diplomatic pulse that could redefine historical balances in the hemisphere.
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