The president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, avoided confirming on Tuesday whether her government will resume oil shipments to Cuba, despite the fact that the threat of trade sanctions announced by President Donald Trump is no longer in effect following a ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States.
During her morning conference, the president was directly asked if the Court's decision affected the tariffs that Washington had announced against countries supplying crude oil to the Island. Her response set the new stage: "That possible sanction no longer exists today, so we are reviewing it; we have already informed you."
However, when asked explicitly whether Mexico will resume oil shipments, Sheinbaum simply responded: "We will inform you soon, they still don't know."
At the end of January, Mexican Petroleum (Pemex) canceled a shipment of crude oil that was scheduled to arrive in Cuba, amid the increasing hardline rhetoric from Washington. Days earlier, Trump had warned that there would be “no more oil or money for Cuba,” and his administration activated a mechanism that allowed for the imposition of additional tariffs on any country that engaged in energy trade with the Island.
That tool was invalidated after the Supreme Court determined that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Subsequently, Trump signed an executive order eliminating the surcharges associated with that regulation.
Nevertheless, the White House continues to uphold the "national emergency" concerning Cuba and other legal pressure mechanisms, which keeps the issue within a delicate diplomatic balance.
The brake prior to Mexican shipments was interpreted as a sign of caution in light of the possibility of trade retaliation from the United States, Mexico's main partner. Now, without the immediate tariff threat, the room for maneuver changes, but Sheinbaum chooses not to anticipate any moves.
On the geopolitical chessboard of Mexico–U.S.–Cuba, the message is clear: the sanction has disappeared, but the decision regarding oil remains a strategic piece that Mexico City is still not willing to move publicly.
Filed under: