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Two months after Nicolás Maduro's capture in a U.S. military operation in Caracas, Venezuela is experiencing an unprecedented political landscape marked by accelerated economic reforms, mass releases of political prisoners, and ongoing uncertainty regarding the country's institutional future.
The operation, carried out on January 3, ended more than 12 years of Maduro's government, who is currently detained in the United States along with his wife, Cilia Flores. Since then, the internal dynamics in Venezuela seem to have shifted: politics has taken a back seat while the economy has become the central priority of the transition process.
Analysts consulted by the agency EFE agree that the country is experiencing a period of rapid transformations in the economic and diplomatic fields, while structural political changes are progressing at a much slower pace.
A presence that fades away
In Venezuela, Maduro's figure is beginning to fade from the public debate.
His image occasionally appears on official social media and on some billboards in Caracas, but the mobilizations to demand his return have become increasingly sporadic.
In the messages circulated by pro-Chavismo sectors, the hashtag #WeWantThemBack is repeated, accompanied by photographs of Maduro and Cilia Flores.
“60 days have passed since his kidnapping”, stated publications released on March 3rd.
However, in the country's daily political life, the focus has shifted towards economic reforms and the institutional transition process driven under international oversight.
From Surprise to Political Confusion
According to researcher Mariana Bacalao, Venezuela is experiencing a moment of collective disbelief regarding changes that seemed impossible before January 3rd.
The country has experienced—he said—a sequence of "if I don't see it, I don't believe it," with changes that "before January 3 were simply unimaginable."
According to the analyst, this situation has generated a mix of expectation and concern.
"The population lives with hope, but also with a deep uncertainty about the political direction of the country," he explained.
Bacalao claims that currently, two parallel dynamics are operating at very different paces.
"One that moves quickly: the diplomatic dynamics between Miraflores and Washington, the incentives for foreign investment, especially in the oil sector, and announcements for economic reactivation," he noted.
The other axis, on the other hand, progresses more slowly:
"The full recovery of rights and freedoms, the dismantling of the repression system, and the fight against corruption."
Reforms and prisoner release
Under the interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez, the country has approved measures in a few weeks that had been deemed politically unfeasible for years.
Among them, the reform of the Organic Law of Hydrocarbons stands out, consisting of 35 articles, aimed at attracting international investments to a key sector for the Venezuelan economy.
The measure is part of the strategy promoted by the United States to revive the country's energy industry.
Additionally, the Parliament approved an Amnesty Law for political prisoners that has allowed for the release of 6,071 individuals, according to official figures.
The figures reflect the scale of the detention system reported for years by human rights organizations, which link it to political persecution, although the Chavista authorities have always attributed those arrests to common crimes.
For Bacalao, the country is experiencing a contradictory moment.
“Venezuela is experiencing new opportunities today, with visible advancements in external and economic affairs, but uncertainty in the political and institutional landscape,” he stated.
The economy as a priority
The emphasis on economic recovery is evident.
For Luis Vicente León, president of the analysis firm Datanálisis, the strategy promoted by Washington clearly places the economy above politics.
According to the explanation, the United States aims to reorganize the Venezuelan energy sector as the first step of a broader plan.
"The strategy prioritizes the economy significantly over politics, but when viewed from the American interests and the campaign offer that Trump made to his allies," he noted.
According to León, the White House plan starts with "controlling and developing the energy sector," then expands to strategic minerals and improves the legal framework for investment.
The president of the Parliament, Jorge Rodríguez, recently confirmed that the Legislative is preparing a reform of the mining law to attract large international companies.
According to him, economic recovery has become a priority after "a very prolonged period of sanctions."
The actors of the new stage
In this scenario, new players are emerging in Venezuelan politics.
For León, one of the central figures is Delcy Rodríguez, who acts as a sort of mediator between the internal forces and international pressure.
She described it as “the hinge that tries to maintain internal order and move forward.”
Another key player is the opposition leader María Corina Machado, recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, whom León attributes with "an important, solid, strong, majority leadership in front of the population."
A third decisive factor is added to them: the military establishment.
According to the analyst, the military remains a key player and is unlikely to allow a process that threatens its security or interests.
"That sector would not allow a change that puts either its heritage or its freedom at risk," he warned.
The mystery of Machado's return
One of the key moments of this transition could be the eventual return of María Corina Machado to the country.
The leader left Venezuela in December and has announced plans to return soon.
For Bacalao, that return could become a decisive signal regarding the democratic direction of the country.
"If you can enter and exercise your political rights without restrictions, it would act as a signal," he explained.
However, if their return faces obstacles, he warned, it could "affect the credibility of the interim government" and raise doubts about its genuine willingness to promote a democratic process.
The opposition demands elections
Meanwhile, the opposition is pushing to expedite the electoral process.
The political party Vente Venezuela, led by Machado, believes that the transition lacks legitimacy without elections.
The national coordinator of the organization, Henry Alviarez, who was released from prison in February, was emphatic: “There needs to be elections in Venezuela soon; that’s the way we can move forward.”
In his opinion, the country has not yet experienced a true democratic opening.
"What we have right now is not a transition, nor are we breathing democratic air, that's not true," he stated.
Although the party continues to defend Edmundo González Urrutia's electoral victory over Maduro in the July 2024 elections, Alviarez acknowledges that the current scenario requires a reevaluation of the strategy.
“The main action is to rescue Venezuelan institutions, and that will begin with the possibility of having free elections,” he stated.
Maduro seeks to halt the trial in the United States
While Venezuela attempts to politically reorganize, Maduro is facing a legal process in the U.S. that could mark the definitive end of his political career.
The former ruler, 63 years old, remains detained in a federal prison in Brooklyn alongside his wife, Cilia Flores, who is 69.
Both were transferred to the U.S. after their capture and pleaded not guilty during their first appearance in federal court, where they claimed to be "prisoners of war."
The formal accusation presented by the Prosecutor's Office includes four main charges: conspiracy to commit narco-terrorism, conspiracy to import cocaine into the United States, possession of war weapons, and conspiracy to possess destructive devices.
If found guilty, they face life imprisonment.
At the end of February, Maduro requested a federal court in Manhattan to dismiss the charges against him.
His lawyer, Barry Pollack, argues that the U.S. government has violated the former president's constitutional right to due process by blocking the funds intended to pay for his defense.
According to the defense, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) initially authorized the payment of the fees, but revoked the permission less than three hours later without explanation.
Maduro also defended this position in a statement presented to the court. “I have relied on this expectation and I cannot afford my own legal defense,” he stated in the document signed as “Nicolás Maduro Moros.”
Pollack argues that preventing the payment of fees undermines the legitimacy of the process.
"The conduct of the United States government not only undermines Mr. Maduro's rights but also the mandate of this Tribunal to provide a fair trial," he warned.
The next hearing in the case has been scheduled for March 26, following a request from the Prosecutor's Office for more time to review evidence.
A country between change and uncertainty
Two months after the fall of Chavism in its most personalist form, Venezuela seems to have entered a complex stage of transition.
The country is rapidly advancing in economic opening and international reintegration, but the political process continues to be marked by uncertainty.
The combination of accelerated economic reforms, international pressures, emerging political actors, and an unprecedented legal process against a former Latin American president keeps the question of Venezuela's future wide open.
For now, the country is attempting to redefine its course as Maduro's figure progressively fades from the national political scene.
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